Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast</li>
<li>Q4 2022 delivered the company's twelfth successive quarter of sequential revenue growth</li>
<li>Details of the funding available under the US CHIPS Act for Globalwafers Sherman, Texas greenfield expansion still remain unclear</li>
</ul>


Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast
Q4 2022 delivered the company's twelfth successive quarter of sequential revenue growth
Details of the funding available under the US CHIPS Act for Globalwafers Sherman, Texas greenfield expansion still remain unclear


Globalwafers Q4 2022 Earnings Key Takeaways

<ul>
<li>H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.</li>
<li>We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.</li>
<li>Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. </li>
</ul>


H2 2022 was a brutal half year for memory. H1 2023 doesn't look any better.
We anticipate a trough in Q1 2023, sequentially flat Q2 followed by modestly increasing revenues through H2.
Micron's upcoming earnings on March 28 will be the next significant data point regarding the state of the memory segment. 


Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October</li>
<li>There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.</li>
<li>Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues through January are behaving as Objective Analysis predicted in October
There has been a slight delay in the collapse, but overall, the collapse is very nearly following its predicted course.
Large memory makers will be the hardest hit, followed by processor vendors


Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

<ul>
<li>2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2</li>
<li>The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest</li>
<li>2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2</li>
</ul>


2022 was characterised by a historically strong H1 followed by a far weaker H2
The current downturn is impacting memory, PC and smartphone shipments the hardest
2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. historically weak H1 with recovery in H2


Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.</li>
<li>Signal #2 -- South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
</ul>


Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.
Signal #2 -- South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.
Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.


Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Globalwafers Q4 2022 Earnings Key Takeaways

Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast. Q4 2022 delivered the company's twelfth successive quarter of...

William Keating

Semiconductor Memory Segment Q4 2022 Review, 2023 Outlook

We anticipate memory revenues to trough in Q1 2023, be sequentially flat Q2 followed by modest growth through H2. So far, Q1 has not shown any...

William Keating

Semiconductor Collapse Is Following Predicted Course

Today's semiconductor market is closely following the forecast we shared in October. This Insight compares the forecast to actual data for the...

Jim Handy

Semiconductors: 2022 Review & 2023 Outlook

2023 is shaping up to be the reverse of 2022, i.e. downturn continuing through H1 with recovery in H2. A lot depends on when PC and smartphone unit...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Signal #1 -- Micron's CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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