Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The past three quarters have seen memory revenues collapse by 60%</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND prices have reach cost, and the business should remain profitless for an indefinite time</li>
<li>Management appears to have no idea when this situation will end</li>
</ul>


The past three quarters have seen memory revenues collapse by 60%
DRAM and NAND prices have reach cost, and the business should remain profitless for an indefinite time
Management appears to have no idea when this situation will end


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix reported a Q1'23 net loss of ~ US$1.9 billion</li>
<li>As was the case with Micron, the company pegged Q1'23 as the trough for the current downturn and now expect quarterly revenues to grow sequentially</li>
<li>Recovery may be nigh, but the macro outlook has actually worsened. The road to recovery will be a long and winding one. </li>
</ul>


SK Hynix reported a Q1'23 net loss of ~ US$1.9 billion
As was the case with Micron, the company pegged Q1'23 as the trough for the current downturn and now expect quarterly revenues to grow sequentially
Recovery may be nigh, but the macro outlook has actually worsened. The road to recovery will be a long and winding one. 


SK Hynix Calls Time On The Memory Downturn

<ul>
<li>With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain</li>
<li>Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.</li>
<li>For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.</li>
</ul>


With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain
Q1 revenues of  $3.87 billion were marginally higher than the forecasted midpoint, down 26.7% sequentially and down 4.4% YoY.
For the current quarter, LRCX expects revenues to decline a further ~ 20% to $3.1 billion at the midpoint.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Micron Technology’s results in the quarter were disastrous as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street and reported wider-than-expected losses.</li><li>Total fiscal revenue was down, whereas DRAM revenue represented 74% of the total revenue.</li><li>Revenue from the Mobile Business Unit was up and Embedded Business Unit revenue was down.</li></ul>

Micron Technology’s results in the quarter were disastrous as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street and reported wider-than-expected losses.Total fiscal revenue was down, whereas DRAM revenue represented 74% of the total revenue.Revenue from the Mobile Business Unit was up and Embedded Business Unit revenue was down.

Micron Technology: How This DRAM & NAND Leader Is Surviving In A Challenging Market – Key Drivers

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology's recent results showed a margin and ASP decline that appears to have performed better than the industry average. </li>
<li>However, Nanya Technology may have traded off better pricing and margins for a continuation of high inventory levels. Nanya shares have underperformed Micron since our Mar 30th piece.</li>
<li>Nanya said it expects a marginal recovery for the DRAM market in the second half of 2023E. SK Hynix will be a next major data point, to report April 26th.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology's recent results showed a margin and ASP decline that appears to have performed better than the industry average. 
However, Nanya Technology may have traded off better pricing and margins for a continuation of high inventory levels. Nanya shares have underperformed Micron since our Mar 30th piece.
Nanya said it expects a marginal recovery for the DRAM market in the second half of 2023E. SK Hynix will be a next major data point, to report April 26th.


Memory Monitor: Nanya Technology Hopeful of 2H23E DRAM Recovery

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Memory Downturn: No End in Sight

Semiconductor memories have collapsed - when will they turn around? After a revenue drop of 60%, memory maker management still have no concrete...

Jim Handy

SK Hynix Calls Time On The Memory Downturn

SK Hynix reported a Q1'23 net loss of ~ US$1.9 billion. Q1'23 pegged as the trough. Recovery may be nigh, but macro outlook has actually worsened....

William Keating

LRCX. Memory Bites. Hard

With ~2x exposure to memory compared to its peers, LRCX is feeling the pain.Q1 revenues of $3.87 billion were -26.7% sequentially and -4.4% YoY....

William Keating

Micron Technology: How This DRAM & NAND Leader Is Surviving In A Challenging Market – Key Drivers

Micron Technology’s results in the quarter were disastrous as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street and reported...

Baptista Research

Memory Monitor: Nanya Technology Hopeful of 2H23E DRAM Recovery

Nanya Technology may have traded off better pricing and margins for a continuation of high inventory levels. Nanya shares have underperformed...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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