Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.</li>
<li>At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.</li>
<li>And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.</li>
</ul>


At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>Significant peer price performance declines leaves IPO valuation stretched, the desired discount multiple to attract interest has suddenly become a premium</li>
<li>Investor interest in memory semiconductors, AI derivative stocks has cooled</li>
<li>Peer price sell-offs are extreme but could quickly change, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of the sector</li>
</ul>


Significant peer price performance declines leaves IPO valuation stretched, the desired discount multiple to attract interest has suddenly become a premium
Investor interest in memory semiconductors, AI derivative stocks has cooled
Peer price sell-offs are extreme but could quickly change, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of the sector


Tech: Japan's Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel's Existential Crisis</li>
<li>Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? </li>
<li>Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel's Existential Crisis
Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? 
Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge</li>
<li>The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend</li>
<li>When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon


<ul>
<li>TSMC's U.S. Production Strategy Achieves Major Milestone - Begins Production of Apple A16 Chips in Arizona</li>
<li>Reports of Apple's Disappointing Initial iPhone 16 Sales Data; Key Taiwan Suppliers Top Losers Recently</li>
<li>Samsung Falling Behind TSMC - New Report of Low Yields Continuing to Plague Samsung's 3nm AI Processors</li>
</ul>


TSMC's U.S. Production Strategy Achieves Major Milestone - Begins Production of Apple A16 Chips in Arizona
Reports of Apple's Disappointing Initial iPhone 16 Sales Data; Key Taiwan Suppliers Top Losers Recently
Samsung Falling Behind TSMC - New Report of Low Yields Continuing to Plague Samsung's 3nm AI Processors


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Micron Technology (MU US)

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Tech: Japan's Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

IPO valuation stretched as peer price declines leave desired discount turning into a premium. investor interest in memory semiconductors and AI...

Neil Campling

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

Qualcomm considers acquiring struggling Intel, global semiconductor sales remain strong in July, Asustek achieves new highs among PC makers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

TSMC's U.S. production milestone with Apple A16 chips in Arizona. Reports of Apple's disappointing iPhone 16 sales. Samsung is still struggling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Tech: Japan's Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

​IPO valuation stretched as peer price declines leave desired discount turning into a premium. investor interest in memory semiconductors and AI...

Neil Campling

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

​Qualcomm considers acquiring struggling Intel, global semiconductor sales remain strong in July, Asustek achieves new highs among PC makers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

​The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Apple Arizona Production Milestone, Samsung 3nm Yield Still Weak Vs. TSMC

​TSMC's U.S. production milestone with Apple A16 chips in Arizona. Reports of Apple's disappointing iPhone 16 sales. Samsung is still struggling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

IPO valuation stretched as peer price declines leave desired discount turning into a premium. investor interest in memory semiconductors and AI...

Qualcomm considers acquiring struggling Intel, global semiconductor sales remain strong in July, Asustek achieves new highs among PC makers.

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

TSMC's U.S. production milestone with Apple A16 chips in Arizona. Reports of Apple's disappointing iPhone 16 sales. Samsung is still struggling...