Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.</li>
<li>The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.</li>
<li>Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.
The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.
Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.


Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q324 DRAM revenues amounted to $25.4 billion, up 8.6% QoQ and up 92.4% YoY</li>
<li>Q324 NAND revenues amounted to $17.9 billion, up 9.8% QoQ and up 93.6% YoY</li>
<li>PC, Smartphone segments sluggish due to high inventory levels while HBM and DDR5 are on fire driven by insatiable demand in the AI server segment. Decoupling continues into 2025.</li>
</ul>


Q324 DRAM revenues amounted to $25.4 billion, up 8.6% QoQ and up 92.4% YoY
Q324 NAND revenues amounted to $17.9 billion, up 9.8% QoQ and up 93.6% YoY
PC, Smartphone segments sluggish due to high inventory levels while HBM and DDR5 are on fire driven by insatiable demand in the AI server segment. Decoupling continues into 2025.


Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple's iPhone 16 Pro &amp; Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition</li>
<li>Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip</li>
<li>TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long... TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators</li>
</ul>


Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple's iPhone 16 Pro &amp; Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long... TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators


Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

<ul>
<li>Apple Set to Launch iPhone SE 4 and Updated iPad Air in Early 2025: Key Developments to Watch</li>
<li>META's Orion AR Glasses: Next Major Computing Platform After the Smartphone?</li>
<li>Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn't Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?</li>
</ul>


Apple Set to Launch iPhone SE 4 and Updated iPad Air in Early 2025: Key Developments to Watch
META's Orion AR Glasses: Next Major Computing Platform After the Smartphone?
Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn't Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when the company has traded below 1.0x PBV. Net cash to market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Q324 DRAM $25.4 billion, +8.6% QoQ & +92.4% YoY. NAND was $17.9 billion, +9.8% QoQ & +93.6% YoY. Legacy markets sluggish while HBM and DDR5 are on...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor

Apple is set to launch new iPhone SE 4 and iPad Air in 2025, Meta's Orion AR Glasses could be the next big thing, and Apple is being forced to react.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when the company has traded below 1.0x PBV. Net cash to market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Q324 DRAM $25.4 billion, +8.6% QoQ & +92.4% YoY. NAND was $17.9 billion, +9.8% QoQ & +93.6% YoY. Legacy markets sluggish while HBM and DDR5 are on...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

​Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Shifting AR Strategy After Meta Orion Showcase; Apple Supply Chain Monitor

​Apple is set to launch new iPhone SE 4 and iPad Air in 2025, Meta's Orion AR Glasses could be the next big thing, and Apple is being forced to react.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Apple is set to launch new iPhone SE 4 and iPad Air in 2025, Meta's Orion AR Glasses could be the next big thing, and Apple is being forced to react.