Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out</li>
<li>Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.</li>
<li>There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.</li>
</ul>


Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out
Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.
There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.


Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. </li>
<li>Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.</li>
<li>Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found</li>
</ul>


The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. 
Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.
Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found


Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, down 13% from a year ago but up 19% sequentially and ~10% higher than the guided midpoint.</li>
<li>Current quarter outlook for revenues of $11 billion, a ~55% sequential increase, sparked mayhem in the markets and sent NVIDIA’s stock soaring over 24% in after hours trading</li>
<li>Don't go chasing waterfalls, there are many other ways to rise with the tide</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, down 13% from a year ago but up 19% sequentially and ~10% higher than the guided midpoint.
Current quarter outlook for revenues of $11 billion, a ~55% sequential increase, sparked mayhem in the markets and sent NVIDIA’s stock soaring over 24% in after hours trading
Don't go chasing waterfalls, there are many other ways to rise with the tide


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.</li>
<li>The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.</li>
<li>Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.
The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.
Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.


Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

<ul>
<li>Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.</li>
<li>However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.</li>
<li>There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.</li>
</ul>


Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.
However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.
There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.


Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Micron's earnings are boring. And a Vicor signal boost. Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

The H2'23 recovery will likely be muted. Downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments. While most semis are...

William Keating

NVIDIA. Yikes! Have We Missed The Boat?

Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, -13% YoY but up +19% QoQ. Q2'23 outlook @ $11 billion, a ~55% QoQ increase. NVIDIA may be the gold rush, but picks...

William Keating

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Micron's earnings are boring. And a Vicor signal boost. Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

The H2'23 recovery will likely be muted. Downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments. While most semis are...

William Keating

NVIDIA. Yikes! Have We Missed The Boat?

Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, -13% YoY but up +19% QoQ. Q2'23 outlook @ $11 billion, a ~55% QoQ increase. NVIDIA may be the gold rush, but picks...

William Keating

Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

Announced major reduction in capex is good news as the company is holding back volume expansion and focusing on higher value output.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA