Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After distributing over 450m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> shares to its shareholders late last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.</li>
<li>Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shares to Tencent shareholders.</li>
<li>Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.</li>
</ul>


After distributing over 450m of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares to its shareholders late last year, Tencent (700 HK) took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.
Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m Meituan (3690 HK) shares to Tencent shareholders.
Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.


Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.</li>
<li>Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market</li><li>Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20</li><li>Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation</li></ul>

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest marketXi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 1.6% YoY to RMB140.1bn (vs consensus RMB140.0bn) while adjusted OP declined 0.2% YoY to RMB28.4bn.</li>
<li>Revenue from both Internet VAS and Online Advertising declined YoY during the quarter. Social networks revenue declined YoY for the first time by 1.9%.</li>
<li>Tencent also announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> to its shareholders in dividends similar to the special dividend of its stake in JD.com.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 1.6% YoY to RMB140.1bn (vs consensus RMB140.0bn) while adjusted OP declined 0.2% YoY to RMB28.4bn.
Revenue from both Internet VAS and Online Advertising declined YoY during the quarter. Social networks revenue declined YoY for the first time by 1.9%.
Tencent also announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends similar to the special dividend of its stake in JD.com.


China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo and Sea Ltd could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank....

Sumeet Singh

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market. Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20.

Caixin Global

Tencent 3Q: Shows Signs of Improvement

Tencent's earnings decline continued in 3Q but shows signs of improvement. The announcement of Meituan stake as special dividend as well as...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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