Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham (D&amp;D) has reduced its Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> to $4.30/share, down from $5.50/share.</li>
<li>The revised offer followed the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's concerns that D&amp;D's acquisition of Link would lead to dominance in Australia's conveyancing market.</li>
<li>To facilitate the new Offer, D&amp;D said it is considering providing an undertaking to ACCC - presumably, but not stated, being the sale of its GlobalX business.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham (D&amp;D) has reduced its Offer price for Link Administration (LNK AU) to $4.30/share, down from $5.50/share.
The revised offer followed the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's concerns that D&amp;D's acquisition of Link would lead to dominance in Australia's conveyancing market.
To facilitate the new Offer, D&amp;D said it is considering providing an undertaking to ACCC - presumably, but not stated, being the sale of its GlobalX business.


Link Admin: Dye & Durham’s Cuts Bid Price

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>The highest spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akm-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7206:1" rel="noopener">AKM Industrial (1639 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excelpoint-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1774:1" rel="noopener">Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
The highest spreads are Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU).
Lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), AKM Industrial (1639 HK), Irongate Group (IAP AU), Giordano International (709 HK), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP).


Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jun) - Ramsay Health, Link Admin, Link Net, True/DTAC, ResApp, Giordano

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/dye-and-durham-re-thinks-link-bid-revised-offer-expected-20220626-p5awns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that after weeks of talk, Dye &amp; Durham (DND) is expected to lob a revised lower proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> as soon as this week.</li>
<li>Presumably, DND’s justification for a lower offer is to facilitate ACCC approval timelines. It remains to be seen if this is enough for the Board to recommend a lower offer. </li>
<li>Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the current peer multiples and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> share price points to a Link valuation range of A$3.52-4.40 per share. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that after weeks of talk, Dye &amp; Durham (DND) is expected to lob a revised lower proposal for Link Administration (LNK AU) as soon as this week.
Presumably, DND’s justification for a lower offer is to facilitate ACCC approval timelines. It remains to be seen if this is enough for the Board to recommend a lower offer. 
Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the current peer multiples and PEXA Group (PXA AU) share price points to a Link valuation range of A$3.52-4.40 per share. 


Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

<ul>
<li>There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-telecommunications-hong-kong-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:141:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)</a>'s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. </li>
<li>Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.</li>
</ul>


There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)'s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. 
Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of SenseTime Group (20 HK) of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In addition to the Regular Rebalance changes, M&amp;A events involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>could also cause index changes during this quarter.</li>
<li>The historical price and volume performance of high conviction ADDs/DELs and potential LONG-SHORT trade ideas involving these names are also discussed in this insight.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the September 2022 Rebalance.
In addition to the Regular Rebalance changes, M&amp;A events involving Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) and Link Administration (LNK AU)could also cause index changes during this quarter.
The historical price and volume performance of high conviction ADDs/DELs and potential LONG-SHORT trade ideas involving these names are also discussed in this insight.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300

Australia

Link Administration Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides fund administration, corporate markets, information, and digital and data services. Link Administration Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Link Administration (LNK AU)

Link Admin: Dye & Durham’s Cuts Bid Price

The Trade: Link was a great buy at - $3.36 as per my last insight. I think the board will put the revised terms to shareholders. There is still a...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jun) - Ramsay Health, Link Admin, Link Net, True/DTAC, ResApp, Giordano

This week, the highest gross spreads are Sezzle (74.8%), Link Admin (49.1%), VNET (27.8%), Alliance Aviation (26.0%), Ramsay (22.4%), ResApp...

Arun George

Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

Renewed bid spec is an unexpected positive catalyst. Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the market sell-off points to a Link valuation range of...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300

Uniti Group could get deleted from the ASX 200 and ASX 300 in July 2022. The potential replacement names could be very high impact index inclusion...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

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Link Admin: Dye & Durham’s Cuts Bid Price

The Trade: Link was a great buy at - $3.36 as per my last insight. I think the board will put the revised terms to shareholders. There is still a...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jun) - Ramsay Health, Link Admin, Link Net, True/DTAC, ResApp, Giordano

This week, the highest gross spreads are Sezzle (74.8%), Link Admin (49.1%), VNET (27.8%), Alliance Aviation (26.0%), Ramsay (22.4%), ResApp...

Arun George

Link Admin: Speculation Mounts that DND Will Revive the Deal with a Lower Offer

Renewed bid spec is an unexpected positive catalyst. Tweaking the IE’s valuation range for the market sell-off points to a Link valuation range of...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300

Uniti Group could get deleted from the ASX 200 and ASX 300 in July 2022. The potential replacement names could be very high impact index inclusion...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Uniti Deletion & Many Other Changes for ASX 200 & 300