Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

On 20 August 2021, the Cyberspace Administration of China and the Ministry of Transport, together with other relevant authorities, jointly issued the Provisions on Management of Automotive Data Security (Trial) ("Auto Data Provisions"). 
The Auto Data Provisions since took effect on 1 October 2021 to limited fanfare, with media headlines instead focused on the Personal Information Protection Law ("PIPL"), which took effect on 1 November 2021, and specific affected sectors, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/chinese-online-brokers-futu-up-fintech-face-regulatory-risks-peoples-daily-2021-10-14/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China online brokerages</a>. 
Further, on 29 October 2021, regulators issued <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-to-tighten-rules-on-data-transfers-abroad-with-review-trigger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">draft data protection regulations</a> which provide that businesses in China face a national security review prior to transfers outside the country of personal information of 100,000 individuals or more.  The draft consultation period will last through 28 November 2021, following which the directives would likely take effect soon after. 
EVs of today are no longer a mere mode of transport that depend on analog platforms.  As EV companies race to develop autonomous driving technologies, most if not all EV companies now harness vast amounts of users and real-time mobility data.  Think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>. 
Yet, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>, Chinese EV manufacturers (all listed in the US) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> have remained largely unscathed from the news flow and analysis surrounding data security in China. 
In this Insight, we discuss what the Auto Data Provisions entail, whether Chinese EV companies face any repercussions from tightening of data security laws, and which one is the most at risk.

On 20 August 2021, the Cyberspace Administration of China and the Ministry of Transport, together with other relevant authorities, jointly issued the Provisions on Management of Automotive Data Security (Trial) ("Auto Data Provisions"). 
The Auto Data Provisions since took effect on 1 October 2021 to limited fanfare, with media headlines instead focused on the Personal Information Protection Law ("PIPL"), which took effect on 1 November 2021, and specific affected sectors, such as China online brokerages. 
Further, on 29 October 2021, regulators issued draft data protection regulations which provide that businesses in China face a national security review prior to transfers outside the country of personal information of 100,000 individuals or more.  The draft consultation period will last through 28 November 2021, following which the directives would likely take effect soon after. 
EVs of today are no longer a mere mode of transport that depend on analog platforms.  As EV companies race to develop autonomous driving technologies, most if not all EV companies now harness vast amounts of users and real-time mobility data.  Think DiDi Global (DIDI US). 
Yet, apart from Tesla Motors (TSLA US), Chinese EV manufacturers (all listed in the US) such as NIO Inc (NIO US), Xpeng (XPEV US) and Li Auto Inc. (LI US) have remained largely unscathed from the news flow and analysis surrounding data security in China. 
In this Insight, we discuss what the Auto Data Provisions entail, whether Chinese EV companies face any repercussions from tightening of data security laws, and which one is the most at risk. 

Nio Inc (Nio US) - Automotive Data Security, Delivery Declines and Hefei Investors

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）</li>
<li>LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Age 16-24 unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.（+）
LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK: EV post holiday sales weak, LI and AITO strong but NIO and Xiaomi down.（/////////）
1810 HK: Xiaomi to launch new products on July 19th (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  </li>
<li>The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  </li>
<li>Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. </li>
</ul>


Chinese auto brands commands 61% market share in May 2024, up from 7% in 2021. Its premium car market share has also risen to 25% from nothing  
The transition towards EV, swift adoption of technology and sleek designs has made traditional car makers (including luxury marquees) look antiquated and out of fashion compared to the Chinese brands  
Premium Chinese automakers LiAuto and NIO will benefit over long-term, whilst the foreign dealers and local-foreign JV OEMs will suffer over the long term. 


China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>
Energy Growth: Tesla’s energy storage business surged to 9.4 GWh in Q2, a 135% increase from Q1's 4 GWh.</li>
<li>
China's Impact: Shanghai Gigafactory shipments fell 24.2% YoY in June, delivering 71,007 units amid a Chinese price war.</li>
<li>
FSD &amp; Robotaxi: Full Self-Driving price cut to $8,000 from $15,000; investors await Robotaxi Day on 8/8.</li>
</ul>



Energy Growth: Tesla’s energy storage business surged to 9.4 GWh in Q2, a 135% increase from Q1's 4 GWh.

China's Impact: Shanghai Gigafactory shipments fell 24.2% YoY in June, delivering 71,007 units amid a Chinese price war.

FSD &amp; Robotaxi: Full Self-Driving price cut to $8,000 from $15,000; investors await Robotaxi Day on 8/8.


Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on China, Energy Storage, & Robotaxi

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We summarize the Jun 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of May 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jun 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and Japanese brands.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jun 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of May 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Jun 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and Japanese brands.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Chinese brands’ 2Q earnings could be resilient

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd., through joint ventures, manufactures and markets automobiles and related parts and accessories.

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited designs, researches, develops, manufactures and sells a variety of passenger vehicles in China.

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Li Auto (LI US)

Nio Inc (Nio US) - Automotive Data Security, Delivery Declines and Hefei Investors

In this Insight, we discuss the impact of tightening auto data security laws, Oct 2021 delivery declines and residual Hefei investors risks on Nio...

Jason Yap, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...

Mohshin Aziz

Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on China, Energy Storage, & Robotaxi

Investors look forward to Tesla's Q2 earnings report on July 23rd. nergy storage business growth (up 135% QoQ to 9.4 GWh), a $25k model car, &...

Mint Finance

Auto - Chinese brands’ 2Q earnings could be resilient

The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nio Inc (Nio US) - Automotive Data Security, Delivery Declines and Hefei Investors

In this Insight, we discuss the impact of tightening auto data security laws, Oct 2021 delivery declines and residual Hefei investors risks on Nio...

Jason Yap, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BZ US/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/1211 HK

​Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Autos Landscape Has Permanently Changed, Foreign Brands Have Lost Their Clout

​Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...

Mohshin Aziz

Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on China, Energy Storage, & Robotaxi

Investors look forward to Tesla's Q2 earnings report on July 23rd. nergy storage business growth (up 135% QoQ to 9.4 GWh), a $25k model car, &...

Mint Finance

Auto - Chinese brands’ 2Q earnings could be resilient

The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.6ppts MoM in Jun based on our calculations, similar to the pace in May, again driven by German and...

CMB International

Unemployment rate for 16-24 age group in US drops due to manufacturing sector; EV sales post-holiday weak, Xiaomi to launch new products on July...

Chinese auto brands have surged in market share, leaving traditional car makers behind with their sleek designs and EV technology, benefiting...