Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.2% but all Action in Tech as SOX +5.5%; Barclay Sector upgrade spurs Semis; Fed Hikes in the rear view for now; Watch Copper - supply risks+China demand</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.65; Where US goes, Japan will follow: All about Tech; Kishida speech: Nuclear Power, Defense, Child support in focus; Wage hikes gather steam. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Davos  on board with the coming of the Metaverse. We highlight this and think there are near term challenges. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.2% but all Action in Tech as SOX +5.5%; Barclay Sector upgrade spurs Semis; Fed Hikes in the rear view for now; Watch Copper - supply risks+China demand
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.65; Where US goes, Japan will follow: All about Tech; Kishida speech: Nuclear Power, Defense, Child support in focus; Wage hikes gather steam. 
DAILY NUGGET. Davos  on board with the coming of the Metaverse. We highlight this and think there are near term challenges. 


Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE - Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends next week. We highlight the 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> remain our top inclusions, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo Co Ltd (3101)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> could be deleted.</li>
<li>Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 1x ADV on many index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends next week. We highlight the 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.

Lasertec Corp (6920), Oriental Land (4661) and Renesas Electronics (6723) remain our top inclusions, while Toyobo Co Ltd (3101), Nippon Light Metal (5703) and Toho Zinc (5707) could be deleted.
Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 1x ADV on many index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Potential Changes as Review Period Nears End

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  CPI slows, Fed Pause narrative strengthens; Yields fall; DXY weakens; Equity rally continues; TSMC Optimism add fuel Semis</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash;  USDJPY ¥129.24; BOJ to end YCC narrative gather steam - Banks rally; Foreigners Selling JGBs; Earnings: Seven &amp;I beats; Fasty misses;  We are bullish</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS: Our meme below says it all - we leave it to the experts to breakdown the data but the evidence indicates  INFLATION DEFEATED.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  CPI slows, Fed Pause narrative strengthens; Yields fall; DXY weakens; Equity rally continues; TSMC Optimism add fuel Semis
JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash;  USDJPY ¥129.24; BOJ to end YCC narrative gather steam - Banks rally; Foreigners Selling JGBs; Earnings: Seven &amp;I beats; Fasty misses;  We are bullish
DAILY NUGGETS: Our meme below says it all - we leave it to the experts to breakdown the data but the evidence indicates  INFLATION DEFEATED.


Good Morning Japan |Benign CPI; Fed Pause in the Crosshairs - Equities Extend Rally

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +1.3% SOX +1.3%; Optimism on soft inflation print drives stocks; Consumer+Tech lead; Apple to introduce touch screens for Mac; Off-Shore Wind Giant Vesta leads in Europe</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at ¥132.45; Biz lobby urgest firms to lift wages above inflatio;  Buy U/G in Lastertec, TEL,  Nexon and D/G to Nintendo </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS:  Fast Retailing has raised the bar for corporate Japan with with their wage hikes. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +1.3% SOX +1.3%; Optimism on soft inflation print drives stocks; Consumer+Tech lead; Apple to introduce touch screens for Mac; Off-Shore Wind Giant Vesta leads in Europe
JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY steady at ¥132.45; Biz lobby urgest firms to lift wages above inflatio;  Buy U/G in Lastertec, TEL,  Nexon and D/G to Nintendo 
DAILY NUGGETS:  Fast Retailing has raised the bar for corporate Japan with with their wage hikes. 


Good Morning Japan |Beta Rally Continues as Optimism Reigns Ahead of CPI Print

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. </li>
<li>There are four ADDs previously discussed: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36668:1" rel="noopener">Sun* (4053 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-steel-plate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18535:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.</li>
</ul>


The January 2023 TOPIX FFW Trade was announced today. The two-way trade is worth about ¥325bn. 
There are four ADDs previously discussed: Sun* (4053 JP), Appier Group (4180 JP), Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP), and Chubu Steel Plate (5461 JP). 
There are 57 downweights, 11 upweights (but only seven FFW buys). The rest is reverse funding to buy. There are 10 names with &gt;$10mm AND &gt;3 days ADV to sell.


January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Good Morning Japan |THE SQUEEZE - Just Buy Tech; US Broker U/G to Semi Spurs Rally; Watch Copper

JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.65; Where US goes, Japan will follow: All about Tech; Kishida speech: Nuclear Power, Defense, Child...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Potential Changes as Review Period Nears End

With a week left in the review period, we revisit the potential NKY changes in March & highlight top add/delete candidates. There will be a large...

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan |Benign CPI; Fed Pause in the Crosshairs - Equities Extend Rally

INFLATION DEFEATED ! Fed pause next. JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash; USDJPY ¥129.24; BOJ to end YCC narrative gather steam - Banks rally;...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Beta Rally Continues as Optimism Reigns Ahead of CPI Print

OVERSEAS. Optimism on soft inflation drives stocks. JAPAN: Biz lobby urgest firms to lift wages above inflation; Buy U/G in Lastertec, TEL, Nexon....

Mark Chadwick

January TOPIX FFW Review - Some Big Sells

The TOPIX January 2023 FFW trade was announced today. 57 down-weights, 11 FFW up-weights. The Phased Weight Reduction has its second leg. Total to...

Travis Lundy

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