Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q324 results were strong, fueled almost purely by higher freight rates</li>
<li>The company's peers have been reporting similar results since early 2024</li>
<li>We continue to believe that price momentum has peaked; AVOID the carriers</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q324 results were strong, fueled almost purely by higher freight rates
The company's peers have been reporting similar results since early 2024
We continue to believe that price momentum has peaked; AVOID the carriers


Maersk Q324 Results: Giant Dane Finally Joins the Party, But Read-Through for Industry Is Limited

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> today announced earnings. Ocean Network Express earnings were out earlier and beyond that, Consolidated Revs beat, OP faltered, but NP was spot on guidance.</li>
<li>Guidance for the year to March 2025 is well ahead of consensus on revenue, slightly ahead on OP, and just a wee bit ahead on NP. </li>
<li>But the company raised its 5yr MTMP Shareholder Return from ¥500bn to ¥700bn and set a new ¥100bn (5.5%) buyback to be executed in the next 3 months.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) today announced earnings. Ocean Network Express earnings were out earlier and beyond that, Consolidated Revs beat, OP faltered, but NP was spot on guidance.
Guidance for the year to March 2025 is well ahead of consensus on revenue, slightly ahead on OP, and just a wee bit ahead on NP. 
But the company raised its 5yr MTMP Shareholder Return from ¥500bn to ¥700bn and set a new ¥100bn (5.5%) buyback to be executed in the next 3 months.


KLINE (9107) - More Profit, More Shareholder Return 3mo Buyback Inbound

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported this AM that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.</li>
<li>The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.</li>
<li>The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported this AM that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) CEO was considering increasing shareholder returns this fiscal year. It already has a juicy div and a ¥100bn buyback.
The company announced its buyback, and an agreement by two holders of 39% to sell in a ToSTNeT-3 buy, then started buying in the market. Results are impactful.
The shares are up today on this news, though they gave some back after the BOJ news. The outlook for more share price impact is not bad. 


KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging - More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

<ul>
<li>Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal</li>
<li>On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue</li>
<li>Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue <em>increased</em> from Q123 to Q423</li>
</ul>


Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

<ul>
<li>Lasertec (6920) is a shoo-in for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September according to the quantitative analysis. The amount to buy is a small multiple of ADV, making the inclusion "unimpressive."</li>
<li>It is probably worth looking at the details of ownership, of volume, and of relationship to other stocks in the same general sector.</li>
<li>It is also worth thinking about flow channels (stock up or down changes flows) and forward fundamental calculations.</li>
</ul>


Lasertec (6920) is a shoo-in for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September according to the quantitative analysis. The amount to buy is a small multiple of ADV, making the inclusion "unimpressive."
It is probably worth looking at the details of ownership, of volume, and of relationship to other stocks in the same general sector.
It is also worth thinking about flow channels (stock up or down changes flows) and forward fundamental calculations.


Lasertec (6920) - The State of Things May Be Different Than You Think

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)

Maersk Q324 Results: Giant Dane Finally Joins the Party, But Read-Through for Industry Is Limited

Maersk reported a scary-good set of quarterly results on Halloween! But many of its peers have been enjoying similar price-driven improvements in...

Tracking Traffic

KLINE (9107) - More Profit, More Shareholder Return 3mo Buyback Inbound

KLINE beat earnings by a bit. Guidance beats Street expectations by a little. But ROE is still a bit low. A big buyback is accretive, and could get...

Travis Lundy

KLINE (9107) CEO Comes Out Swinging - More LPG Carriers and More Shareholder Returns THIS YEAR

K-Line's CEO in a Nikkei interview said they would expand their LNG carrier fleet by 60% from here to 2026. And they said they are considering...

Travis Lundy

Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Spot container rates have surged, and carriers are also benefitting from newly-imposed ancillary charges. It's possible the ongoing conflict in the...

Tracking Traffic

Lasertec (6920) - The State of Things May Be Different Than You Think

All the earnings are out. Lasertec had previewed its June 2023 results in a 24 July guidance upgrade, and beat those. It also released June 2024...

Travis Lundy

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