Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. With US out, No leaders in Global Equities; European shares closed flat on thin Volumes;  China's measures to support Property market taking hold. </li>
<li>JAPAN.US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&amp;S, Matsui Sec OUT; JFE 200bn Equity/CB raising  </li>
<li>JAPAN X: JFE Holdings Plans to Raise ¥200 Billion for Carbon Emissions Reduction Efforts. Still need clarity willingness of customers to accept "green pricing".  Watch Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. With US out, No leaders in Global Equities; European shares closed flat on thin Volumes;  China's measures to support Property market taking hold. 
JAPAN.US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&amp;S, Matsui Sec OUT; JFE 200bn Equity/CB raising  
JAPAN X: JFE Holdings Plans to Raise ¥200 Billion for Carbon Emissions Reduction Efforts. Still need clarity willingness of customers to accept "green pricing".  Watch Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel. 


Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Shibaura Mechatronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Five plus years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> sold down a 26% stake in small cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-mechatronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8763:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Mechatronics (6590 JP)</a> to get to a consolidated 13%-ish stake. </li>
<li>This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-selldown-of-shibaura-mechatronics-6590" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15870" rel="noopener">Toshiba Selldown of Shibaura Mechatronics (6590)</a> back then. Yesterday, we got news Toshiba would sell out its remaining stake. And there's a buyback. Maybe.</li>
<li>The stock has reacted badly on Day 1, despite a lack of dilution. Shareholder structure matters. </li>
</ul>


Five plus years ago, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sold down a 26% stake in small cap Shibaura Mechatronics (6590 JP) to get to a consolidated 13%-ish stake. 
This was discussed in Toshiba Selldown of Shibaura Mechatronics (6590) back then. Yesterday, we got news Toshiba would sell out its remaining stake. And there's a buyback. Maybe.
The stock has reacted badly on Day 1, despite a lack of dilution. Shareholder structure matters. 


Shibaura Mechatronics (6590) Secondary Offering & Buyback

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Concerning Australian tax-loss selling baskets, the sell across the four baskets made 4.2% vs ASX200 in May, then is up.</li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>. Or long<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> for a long JPB position. Don't be short JPB or short JPB vs JPH.</li>
<li>As a PRC aviation/defense play, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>'s fundamentals are undemanding. </li>
</ul>


Concerning Australian tax-loss selling baskets, the sell across the four baskets made 4.2% vs ASX200 in May, then is up.
Be long Japan Post Bank (7182 JP). Or longJapan Post Holdings (6178 JP) for a long JPB position. Don't be short JPB or short JPB vs JPH.
As a PRC aviation/defense play, AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)'s fundamentals are undemanding. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax-Loss Selling, Japan Post Bank/Holdings, AviChina, Hang Lung

<ul>
<li>The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a> looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.</li>
<li>One way, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385)</a> are ADDs. Another way, it looks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453)</a>. FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.</li>
</ul>


The data for the Nikkei 225 Rebalance is cemented as of 31 July 2023. Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) looks like a shoo-in. The DELETEs are obvious too.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) doesn't get a cap (yet). But the other ADDs are a real question. It is a matter of interpreting the methodology and qualitative aspects. And FLOAT.
One way, Socionext (6526) and Mercari (4385) are ADDs. Another way, it looks like Nitori Holdings (9843) and ZOZO Inc (3092) or Ryohin Keikaku (7453). FLOAT IS A PROBLEM ANYWAY.


Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

<ul>
<li>The Tenth Annual JPX Nikkei 400 Index Review was announced on Monday 7 August. There are 38 Inclusions, 36 Deletions. They are mostly in line with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a>'s predictions.</li>
<li>The BIG SELL is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-d-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3431:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP)</a>, which surprised me. The top BUY is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> which was not on the Quiddity Leaderboard.</li>
<li>Otherwise, the ADDs and DELETEs are 1.8-2.0 days of ADV, there are several NEW CAPs and some RECAPS among LARGE CAPS</li>
</ul>


The Tenth Annual JPX Nikkei 400 Index Review was announced on Monday 7 August. There are 38 Inclusions, 36 Deletions. They are mostly in line with Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA's predictions.
The BIG SELL is T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP), which surprised me. The top BUY is ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) which was not on the Quiddity Leaderboard.
Otherwise, the ADDs and DELETEs are 1.8-2.0 days of ADV, there are several NEW CAPs and some RECAPS among LARGE CAPS


2023 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal - 38 IN, 36 OUT, 4.2% One Way Flow

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive

US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec...

Mark Chadwick

Shibaura Mechatronics (6590) Secondary Offering & Buyback

Shibaura Mechatronics (one of the coolest company names out there) sees a Secondary Offer where original uncle Toshiba sells out. Supply/demand...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax-Loss Selling, Japan Post Bank/Holdings, AviChina, Hang Lung

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review - Not An Easy Rebal 🤨

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is problematic. For the first time under the new rules we have "Serious Rule Interpretation Issues." Then...

Travis Lundy

2023 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal - 38 IN, 36 OUT, 4.2% One Way Flow

The annual JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance is here. 38 names in, 36 names out. 4.2% one-way flow. The basket normally trades well for several days, then...

Travis Lundy

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