Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to the second research piece in our “Business Cycle Week”.</li><li>In this edition of the series on the business cycle, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets.</li><li>Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or is it just a saying?</li></ul>

Welcome to the second research piece in our “Business Cycle Week”.In this edition of the series on the business cycle, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets.Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or is it just a saying?

FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DXY buy call at 108 targeted 111.50 wedge resistance. Friday's impulsive above 112 is more bullish in a blow off fashion with projection at 114.70.</li>
<li>Key momentum moves versus Sterling, MYR, CNH, KRW and the fresh INR breakout stand out. USD in Asia set to push higher in line with risk aversion.</li>
<li>The US 10yr yield RSI posture is warning of a top in yield in late September and then overlap into favored USD short set ups.</li>
</ul>


DXY buy call at 108 targeted 111.50 wedge resistance. Friday's impulsive above 112 is more bullish in a blow off fashion with projection at 114.70.
Key momentum moves versus Sterling, MYR, CNH, KRW and the fresh INR breakout stand out. USD in Asia set to push higher in line with risk aversion.
The US 10yr yield RSI posture is warning of a top in yield in late September and then overlap into favored USD short set ups.


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

<ul>
<li>The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. </li>
<li>Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.</li>
<li>PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.</li>
</ul>


The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. 
Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.
PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.


Which EM Currency Has Suffered the Most Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

<ul>
<li>USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.</li>
<li>USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.</li>
<li>USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.</li>
</ul>


USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.
USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.
USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.


South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

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FX Watch: Have FX Markets Sniffed out an Upcoming Rebound?

In this edition, we will focus on whether FX markets sniff out the cycle ahead of other asset markets. Is the USD a bellwether of global trends or...

Steno Research

USD Blow off Rise and Asia FX Targets

DXY buy call at 108 targeted 111.50 wedge resistance. Friday's impulsive above 112 is more bullish in a blow off fashion with projection at 114.70....

Thomas Schroeder

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Which EM Currency Has Suffered the Most Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

Adding to the economic woes from Russia's aggression, the Hungarian forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Asian FX Action Levels

USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a...

Thomas Schroeder

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