Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currencies</li><li>US and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflation</li><li>Currency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressures</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currenciesUS and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflationCurrency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressuresThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.</li>
<li>Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.</li>
<li>Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.


EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap:    Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.</li>
<li>Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09</li>
<li>Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.</li>
</ul>


Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.
Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires &lt;= Jan 09
Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

Trump suggests implementing tariffs to stop immigration from Mexico and Canada, US and UK CPI data expected to be higher, Fed may be hawkish on...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

Trump suggests implementing tariffs to stop immigration from Mexico and Canada, US and UK CPI data expected to be higher, Fed may be hawkish on...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

​Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly - December 23 - 27

The Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.

John Ley

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...