Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Bucking the Trend in the Rest of EM, Turkey Looks Set to Cut Rates

Revisiting the US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

TRY

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency