'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/784/original/2020-07-30_08-23-32.png?1596065031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148784"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/785/original/2020-07-30_08-24-39.png?1596065092" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148785"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/786/original/2020-07-30_08-25-16.png?1596065140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148786"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a> were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.
<hr>
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>85 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -2.4</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.

DAILY STATS
85 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

In this insight we provide a preview into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a>’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast quarterly results is based on our alternative data analysis. It uses monthly exports and domestic production data to forecast the company’s revenue. We discuss the details below.

In this insight we provide a preview into Kose Corp (4922 JP)’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast quarterly results is based on our alternative data analysis. It uses monthly exports and domestic production data to forecast the company’s revenue. We discuss the details below.

KOSÉ 1QFY21 Earnings Preview: China Recovery Overlooked

Event-Driven

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)</a> were the worst performers, as their share prices declined 13.5% and 15.8% respectively. During that time, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>’s, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>’s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>’s share prices declined 1.2%, 4.9% and 0.3% respectively.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/266/original/image_90950717321594803990962.png?1594803991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146266"></figure>

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics names, Kose Corp (4922 JP) and Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) were the worst performers, as their share prices declined 13.5% and 15.8% respectively. During that time, Shiseido Company (4911 JP)’s, Kao Corp (4452 JP)’s and Fancl Corp (4921 JP)’s share prices declined 1.2%, 4.9% and 0.3% respectively.

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/​Short Shiseido

<ul>
<li>Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the consumption tax increase, Japan’s domestic cosmetics market declined 0.6% year-on-year on average during Oct-2019 to Jan-2020. The rate of decline accelerated to 26% by April 2020 due to COVID-19.</li>
<li>However, the situation is much better outside of Japan. Total cosmetics exports grew 8% year-on-year in May 2020 as exports to China increased 49.8% year-on-year.</li>
<li>Below we analyse, Japan’s cosmetics industry using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.</li>
</ul>


Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the consumption tax increase, Japan’s domestic cosmetics market declined 0.6% year-on-year on average during Oct-2019 to Jan-2020. The rate of decline accelerated to 26% by April 2020 due to COVID-19.
However, the situation is much better outside of Japan. Total cosmetics exports grew 8% year-on-year in May 2020 as exports to China increased 49.8% year-on-year.
Below we analyse, Japan’s cosmetics industry using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.


Japanese Cosmetics Industry Statistics- May 2020: China Recovers While Domestic Demand Deteriorates

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1" rel="noopener">Lion Corp (4912 JP) '</a>s range of leading personal and home hygiene brands - including popular Kirei Kirei hand wash, Systema oral care products, and Lion dish-wash detergent - will continue to be in demand as health and hygiene remain top consumer priorities under the new normal. We expect consumers to prioritize spending on hygiene, health, and wellness products over cosmetics, apparel, and footwear as they spend more time at home given work-from-home options and restrictions on socializing. Although many Asian countries have got the COVID situation under control, fears of a second wave is rife after recent news of several cases of infection in Beijing. Lion Corp's many leading brands are sold in markets outside Japan - China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, as well. The company has been expanding its presence in specialized high-value-add consumer goods as well as OTC pharma products in a bid to grow long term revenues and improve margins.In the detailed note below we discuss why we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1" rel="noopener">Lion Corp (4912 JP)</a> - its near and long term revenue and earnings drivers, key concerns, financials, and valuation.Refer to our recent report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shrinking-shifting-personal-consmpn-wfh-here-to-stay-sg-hk-retail-analysis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40105" rel="noopener">Shrinking &amp; Shifting Personal Consmpn. WFH - Here to Stay? SG/HK Retail Analysis</a> where we discuss how some segments of consumer goods will fare better in terms of demand as lifestyles are reset post-COVID.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1" rel="noopener">Lion Corp (4912 JP)</a> was identified as one of the companies that would gain from change in consumer buying behavior under new normal.

Lion Corp (4912 JP) 's range of leading personal and home hygiene brands - including popular Kirei Kirei hand wash, Systema oral care products, and Lion dish-wash detergent - will continue to be in demand as health and hygiene remain top consumer priorities under the new normal. We expect consumers to prioritize spending on hygiene, health, and wellness products over cosmetics, apparel, and footwear as they spend more time at home given work-from-home options and restrictions on socializing. Although many Asian countries have got the COVID situation under control, fears of a second wave is rife after recent news of several cases of infection in Beijing. Lion Corp's many leading brands are sold in markets outside Japan - China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, as well. The company has been expanding its presence in specialized high-value-add consumer goods as well as OTC pharma products in a bid to grow long term revenues and improve margins.In the detailed note below we discuss why we like Lion Corp (4912 JP) - its near and long term revenue and earnings drivers, key concerns, financials, and valuation.Refer to our recent report Shrinking &amp; Shifting Personal Consmpn. WFH - Here to Stay? SG/HK Retail Analysis where we discuss how some segments of consumer goods will fare better in terms of demand as lifestyles are reset post-COVID.  Lion Corp (4912 JP) was identified as one of the companies that would gain from change in consumer buying behavior under new normal.

Lion Corp (4912 JP): Clean Care for Consumers, Safe Play for Investors

Japan

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

Price Gauge
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Kao Corp (4452 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

KOSÉ 1QFY21 Earnings Preview: China Recovery Overlooked

In this insight we provide a preview into Kose Corp (4922 JP)’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/Short Shiseido

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Cosmetics Industry Statistics- May 2020: China Recovers While Domestic Demand Deteriorates

Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Lion Corp (4912 JP): Clean Care for Consumers, Safe Play for Investors

Lion Corp (4912 JP) 's range of leading personal and home hygiene brands - including popular Kirei Kirei hand wash, Systema oral care products, and...

Devi Subhakesan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

KOSÉ 1QFY21 Earnings Preview: China Recovery Overlooked

In this insight we provide a preview into Kose Corp (4922 JP)’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/​Short Shiseido

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Cosmetics Industry Statistics- May 2020: China Recovers While Domestic Demand Deteriorates

Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Lion Corp (4912 JP): Clean Care for Consumers, Safe Play for Investors

Lion Corp (4912 JP) 's range of leading personal and home hygiene brands - including popular Kirei Kirei hand wash, Systema oral care products, and...

Devi Subhakesan

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/Short Shiseido