Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. </li>
<li>Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). </li>
<li>Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. </li>
</ul>


With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). 
Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 


Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech</li>
<li>AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.</li>
<li>Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&amp;G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.</li>
</ul>


Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech
AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.
Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&amp;G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.</li>
<li>Japan's drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. </li>
<li>The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.
Japan's drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. 
The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.


Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite expected increased demand from returning Asian tourists, Japanese cosmetics companies have been hesitant to revise their 2H 2023 inbound demand projections.</li>
<li>We are long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)</a>, as consensus estimates look extra cautious and reasonable and appealing FY+2 valuation multiples.</li>
<li>We view the risk of Chinese consumers boycotting Japanese cosmetics due to Fukushima wastewater release as relatively low.</li>
</ul>


Despite expected increased demand from returning Asian tourists, Japanese cosmetics companies have been hesitant to revise their 2H 2023 inbound demand projections.
We are long Kose Corp (4922 JP), Shiseido Company (4911 JP), and Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP), as consensus estimates look extra cautious and reasonable and appealing FY+2 valuation multiples.
We view the risk of Chinese consumers boycotting Japanese cosmetics due to Fukushima wastewater release as relatively low.


Japanese Cosmetics Ready to Blossom with Asian Visitors

Japan

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

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Kao Corp (4452 JP)

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Michael Causton

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Cosmetics Ready to Blossom with Asian Visitors

Japanese cosmetics companies were hesitant to revise their inbound demand projections despite expected increased demand from returning Asian...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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52-week Range

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Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

​Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

​Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

​The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Michael Causton

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Cosmetics Ready to Blossom with Asian Visitors

​Japanese cosmetics companies were hesitant to revise their inbound demand projections despite expected increased demand from returning Asian...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Japanese cosmetics companies were hesitant to revise their inbound demand projections despite expected increased demand from returning Asian...