Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>More than six months on from the initial outbreak, the spread of COVID-19 is still gaining momentum with more than 16 million recorded cases and 600,000 deaths worldwide.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> downplayed the impact of COVID-19 on quarterly results initially. However, 2Q20 results, released yesterday (29<sup>th</sup> July 2020) was a reality check for Kao, possibly the most resilient Japanese cosmetic company among peers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>.</p>
<p>It appears that Kao has overestimated its resilience, especially in a time where peers were much more sceptical. Kao’s significantly weak 2Q20 results compared to its expectations as of April 2020 has prompted the company to lower its 2020 revenue and OP guidance by 5% and 14% respectively from the lower end of the April 2020 guidance range.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/831/original/image_93425590421596077376146.png?1596077381" width="595" height="358" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148831"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Company Disclosures</div>

More than six months on from the initial outbreak, the spread of COVID-19 is still gaining momentum with more than 16 million recorded cases and 600,000 deaths worldwide.
Kao Corp (4452 JP) downplayed the impact of COVID-19 on quarterly results initially. However, 2Q20 results, released yesterday (29th July 2020) was a reality check for Kao, possibly the most resilient Japanese cosmetic company among peers Shiseido Company (4911 JP), Kose Corp (4922 JP), Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) and Fancl Corp (4921 JP).
It appears that Kao has overestimated its resilience, especially in a time where peers were much more sceptical. Kao’s significantly weak 2Q20 results compared to its expectations as of April 2020 has prompted the company to lower its 2020 revenue and OP guidance by 5% and 14% respectively from the lower end of the April 2020 guidance range.

Source: Company Disclosures

Kao 2Q20 Results: Expecting Worse in the Third Quarter

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/784/original/2020-07-30_08-23-32.png?1596065031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148784"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/785/original/2020-07-30_08-24-39.png?1596065092" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148785"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/786/original/2020-07-30_08-25-16.png?1596065140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148786"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>29th JULY</strong> - As the pace of announcements picks up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a> were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>85 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 24%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 </strong>Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -12.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.

DAILY STATS
85 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

<p>In this insight we provide a preview into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a>’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31<sup>st</sup> July 2020. Our approach to forecast quarterly results is based on our alternative data analysis. It uses monthly exports and domestic production data to forecast the company’s revenue. We discuss the details below.</p>

In this insight we provide a preview into Kose Corp (4922 JP)’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast quarterly results is based on our alternative data analysis. It uses monthly exports and domestic production data to forecast the company’s revenue. We discuss the details below.

KOSÉ 1QFY21 Earnings Preview: China Recovery Overlooked

Event-Driven

<p>Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP)</a> were the worst performers, as their share prices declined 13.5% and 15.8% respectively. During that time, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>’s, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>’s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>’s share prices declined 1.2%, 4.9% and 0.3% respectively.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/266/original/image_90950717321594803990962.png?1594803991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146266"></figure>

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics names, Kose Corp (4922 JP) and Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) were the worst performers, as their share prices declined 13.5% and 15.8% respectively. During that time, Shiseido Company (4911 JP)’s, Kao Corp (4452 JP)’s and Fancl Corp (4921 JP)’s share prices declined 1.2%, 4.9% and 0.3% respectively.

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/​Short Shiseido

<ul>
<li>Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the consumption tax increase, Japan’s domestic cosmetics market declined 0.6% year-on-year on average during Oct-2019 to Jan-2020. The rate of decline accelerated to 26% by April 2020 due to COVID-19.</li>
<li>However, the situation is much better outside of Japan. Total cosmetics exports grew 8% year-on-year in May 2020 as exports to China increased 49.8% year-on-year.</li>
<li>Below we analyse, Japan’s cosmetics industry using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.</li>
</ul>


Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the consumption tax increase, Japan’s domestic cosmetics market declined 0.6% year-on-year on average during Oct-2019 to Jan-2020. The rate of decline accelerated to 26% by April 2020 due to COVID-19.
However, the situation is much better outside of Japan. Total cosmetics exports grew 8% year-on-year in May 2020 as exports to China increased 49.8% year-on-year.
Below we analyse, Japan’s cosmetics industry using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.


Japanese Cosmetics Industry Statistics- May 2020: China Recovers While Domestic Demand Deteriorates

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetics. The Company develops, produces, and distributes toners, masks, face creams, sun creams, and more. Shiseido also conducts beauty drinks, beauty salons, and other businesses.

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The Company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

KOBAYASHI PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and wholesales pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.  The Company also develops and manufactures fragrances, deodorant, sanitary products, and ointment for stiff shoulders, as well as exports to Southeast Asia and the US.

POLA ORBIS HOLDINGS INC. develops, manufactures and markets cosmetic products, centering in skincare  products. Under its multi-brand strategy, the Company holds nine cosmetic brands including POLA, prestige skincare brand, ORBIS, oil-free skincare brand, H2O PLUS and Jurlique.

FANCL CORPORATION produces and sells additive-free skin care cosmetics for both women and men.  The Company's products include cleansing creams, hair care goods such as shampoos and conditioners, and facial make up products.  Fancl also makes and distributes dietary supplements including royal jelly and various tablets with extracted essence from mushrooms, garlic, ginseng, and soy beans.

Rizap Group Inc provides low calorie foods including soy milk cookies, diet drinks, and supplements.  The Company sells its products through mail order.

Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells a variety of cosmetic products. The Company's products include skin care and make-up.  Noevir also manufactures and sells medicines, nutritional supplements and apparel.

Milbon Co., Ltd. manufactures hair care products for beauty salons.  The Company produces chemicals for permanents, hair coloring, shampoos, rinses, and hair growth stimulant products.

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

Godrej Consumer Products Limited manufactures personal care, hair care, household care and fabric care products. The Company's products include toilet soaps, cosmetics, shaving creams, talcum powder, household cleaners and fabric detergents.

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

Coty Inc. manufactures and distributes beauty products. The Company offers fragrances, color cosmetics, hygiene, sun care, and skin treatment products. Coty supplies its products to department stores, specialty retailers, mass-market retailers, and duty free shops in airports worldwide.

Marico Limited manufactures consumer products and services in the beauty and wellness space. The Company is known for its presence in the following categories: Coconut Oil, Hair Oils, Anti-lice Treatment, Premium Refined Edible Oils and Fabric Care. Marico Limited is present in the Skin Care Services segment through Kaya Skin Clinics.

Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare Limited manufactures personal & beauty care and healthcare products. The Company's products include menthol, dementholised peppermint oil, cosmetics, personal care products, toilet preparations, soaps and detergents.

Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare (PG IN)

Amorepacific Corporation develops, manufactures, and exports skin care, make-up, and fragrance products. The Company also produces and markets personal care and health-related products, such as shampoos, soaps, toothpastes, and health teas.

Beiersdorf AG develops, manufactures, and markets personal care, disposable medical, and adhesive products. The Company produces skin and hair care products, bandages, surgical gloves, compression stockings, sun block lotion, fastening systems, masking products, and packaging systems.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. operates as a cosmetic company. The Company offers beauty products for eyes, lips, and face. e.l.f. Beauty provides eyeliners, lipsticks, lip care and brushes, powder, and skin care products.

Hengan International Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells personal hygiene products such as sanitary napkins and disposable baby diapers in China.  The Company's products are sold under the Anerle brand name.

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

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Kao Corp (4452 JP)

Kao 2Q20 Results: Expecting Worse in the Third Quarter

More than six months on from the initial outbreak, the spread of COVID-19 is still gaining momentum with more than 16 million recorded cases and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

KOSÉ 1QFY21 Earnings Preview: China Recovery Overlooked

In this insight we provide a preview into Kose Corp (4922 JP)’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/Short Shiseido

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Cosmetics Industry Statistics- May 2020: China Recovers While Domestic Demand Deteriorates

Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kao 2Q20 Results: Expecting Worse in the Third Quarter

More than six months on from the initial outbreak, the spread of COVID-19 is still gaining momentum with more than 16 million recorded cases and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

KOSÉ 1QFY21 Earnings Preview: China Recovery Overlooked

In this insight we provide a preview into Kose Corp (4922 JP)’s 1QFY21 results scheduled to be released on 31st July 2020. Our approach to forecast...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/​Short Shiseido

Since June 2020, the share price performance between Japanese cosmetics companies has diverged rather significantly. Among Japanese cosmetics...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Cosmetics Industry Statistics- May 2020: China Recovers While Domestic Demand Deteriorates

Cosmetics is one of the industries, worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The industry was struggling for growth even before COVID-19. Due to the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/Short Shiseido