Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nervous markets overnight with a number of earnings misses adding downside pressure.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro IPO kicks off today which should see strong demand especially from risk-adverse retail investors.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro grey market last Y1400 vs Y1200 listing price, although bookrunners are calling higher levels to start.</li>
</ul>


Nervous markets overnight with a number of earnings misses adding downside pressure.
Tokyo Metro IPO kicks off today which should see strong demand especially from risk-adverse retail investors.
Tokyo Metro grey market last Y1400 vs Y1200 listing price, although bookrunners are calling higher levels to start.


Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. </li>
<li>Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). </li>
<li>Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. </li>
</ul>


With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). 
Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 


Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

<ul>
<li>Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech</li>
<li>AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.</li>
<li>Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&amp;G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.</li>
</ul>


Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech
AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.
Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&amp;G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.</li>
<li>Japan's drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. </li>
<li>The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


The big merger between Welcia and Tsuruha is part of a wider concentration of market share in the drugstore sector as the leaders take on supermarkets and even convenience stores.
Japan's drugstores have morphed into multiple sub-formats, selling food and other FMCG products in ever higher ratios, creating massive pressure for other sectors. 
The net effect is the emergence of a powerful new retail sector that is impacting all other FMCG retail formats and even lifestyle categories like cosmetics.


Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

Japan

Kao Corporation is a manufacturer of household and chemical products. The company produces cosmetics, laundry and cleaning products, hygiene products, fatty chemicals, edible oils, and specialty chemicals.

Price Gauge
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Kao Corp (4452 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

Nervous markets overnight due to a number of earnings misses. Tokyo Metro IPO expected to see strong demand, especially from risk-adverse retail...

Andrew Jackson

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Hong Kong dollar strengthens to the strong end of the band. Hengan and Galaxy share prices have both broken out of Falling Wedge patterns. Wuxi...

David Mudd

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

​Nervous markets overnight due to a number of earnings misses. Tokyo Metro IPO expected to see strong demand, especially from risk-adverse retail...

Andrew Jackson

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Hong Kong dollar strengthens to the strong end of the band. Hengan and Galaxy share prices have both broken out of Falling Wedge patterns. Wuxi...

David Mudd

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

​Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

​Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Drugstores: More M&A as Sector Attacks Supermarkets and Conbini

​The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....

Michael Causton

Nervous markets overnight due to a number of earnings misses. Tokyo Metro IPO expected to see strong demand, especially from risk-adverse retail...

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Big tech stocks tumble after poor earnings from INTC, AMZN miss to impact JP tech sector, flight to safety in consumer goods may boost related...

The merger of Welcia and Tsuruha reflects market consolidation in Japan's drugstore sector, with major attacks on supermarkets and even conbinis....