External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is stronger on the session and the DXY is finally showing signs of breaking out of the range that has held the major currencies since the US jobs report ten days ago.</li><li>US Treasury yields jumped 6bps as trading restarted after Monday’s holiday. Meanwhile, global equity markets are trading defensively.</li><li>Rising yields and weak risk appetite appear to have sparked a major reaction in the currency market today, with caution around the 11ET comments due from Fed Governor Waller, a hawk, perhaps adding to the lift under the USD. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger on the session and the DXY is finally showing signs of breaking out of the range that has held the major currencies since the US jobs report ten days ago.US Treasury yields jumped 6bps as trading restarted after Monday’s holiday. Meanwhile, global equity markets are trading defensively.Rising yields and weak risk appetite appear to have sparked a major reaction in the currency market today, with caution around the 11ET comments due from Fed Governor Waller, a hawk, perhaps adding to the lift under the USD. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Jump Pressures Post-NFP Ranges

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Many economists expect the Bank of Japan, after systematically refusing to adjust its extremely loose monetary policy will be the only country to raise interest rates in 2024.</li>
<li>If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates, at the same time, global tightening momentum wanes, betting on a stronger yen is a sure thing.</li>
<li>But with inflation dropping, the Manufacturing PMI below 50, consumer spending and real wages declining, the window for tighter monetary policy is closing rapidly, and hence a long yen position.</li>
</ul>


Many economists expect the Bank of Japan, after systematically refusing to adjust its extremely loose monetary policy will be the only country to raise interest rates in 2024.
If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates, at the same time, global tightening momentum wanes, betting on a stronger yen is a sure thing.
But with inflation dropping, the Manufacturing PMI below 50, consumer spending and real wages declining, the window for tighter monetary policy is closing rapidly, and hence a long yen position.


Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading a little firmer to start the week but the DXY remains effectively range bound, with the broader trend in the USD against the majors still holding within the wide intraday range set by the markets in response to the stronger than expected NFP data on January 5th.</li><li>The MLK Day federal holiday today will keep things relatively quiet, and ranges are unlikely to extend significantly in the absence of US market participants.</li><li>But the somewhat firmer USD tone is appropriate in my opinion, given the recent strength in US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials who have suggested market pricing for a March rate cut (19bps at writing) is optimistic. Stocks are trading with a slightly softer bias on the session—but fixed income is a little weaker as well in Europe—giving the USD a mild helping hand on the session. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading a little firmer to start the week but the DXY remains effectively range bound, with the broader trend in the USD against the majors still holding within the wide intraday range set by the markets in response to the stronger than expected NFP data on January 5th.The MLK Day federal holiday today will keep things relatively quiet, and ranges are unlikely to extend significantly in the absence of US market participants.But the somewhat firmer USD tone is appropriate in my opinion, given the recent strength in US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials who have suggested market pricing for a March rate cut (19bps at writing) is optimistic. Stocks are trading with a slightly softer bias on the session—but fixed income is a little weaker as well in Europe—giving the USD a mild helping hand on the session. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.</li>
<li>I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.</li>
<li>The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.
I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.
The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.


Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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FX Daily - USD Jump Pressures Post-NFP Ranges

The USD is stronger on the session and the DXY is finally showing signs of breaking out of the range that has held the major currencies since the...

Scotiabank

Japan Taking a Trip Down Tightening Lane? Sure!

The window for Bank of Japan monetary tightening is closing swiftly, suggesting this is not the time to be long the yen.

Jeroen Blokland

FX Daily - USD Gains in Quiet Trade

The MLK Day federal holiday today will keep things relatively quiet, and ranges are unlikely to extend significantly in the absence of US market...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen. I guess it is somewhat telling for my...

Steno Research

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