Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from policymakers, including the verbal FX intervention from MoF and BoJ today, and the Spanish HICP numbers, which we hit right on the mark! The benign base effects and dovish outlook has potentially paved the way for a cut in June, but what should you look out for in the meantime?</li><li>We give you 5 topics from our watchlist.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro.</li></ul>

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from policymakers, including the verbal FX intervention from MoF and BoJ today, and the Spanish HICP numbers, which we hit right on the mark! The benign base effects and dovish outlook has potentially paved the way for a cut in June, but what should you look out for in the meantime?We give you 5 topics from our watchlist.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro.

5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP release</li><li>Market leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by Fed</li><li>Yen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP releaseMarket leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by FedYen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.</li><li>Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.</li><li>A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with aggregate equity fund flows in the US reaching 2-year highs this week.</li><li>Markets are certainly back into full risk-on mode, with the Fed promising rate cuts amidst reflationary trends in the US, which is a trend that is slowly but surely spreading to the rest of the world.</li><li>The cyclical rebound is not truly there yet in Europe, which means that European indices are starting to get flagged as overpriced in our quant-models.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with aggregate equity fund flows in the US reaching 2-year highs this week.Markets are certainly back into full risk-on mode, with the Fed promising rate cuts amidst reflationary trends in the US, which is a trend that is slowly but surely spreading to the rest of the world.The cyclical rebound is not truly there yet in Europe, which means that European indices are starting to get flagged as overpriced in our quant-models.

Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>The catalyst: Japan’s Vice Finance Minister. ‘The current weakening of the yen is not in line with fundamentals and is clearly driven by speculation.’</li>
<li>As the Bank of Japan will not or only marginally hike its policy rate from here, the interest rate differential can only go one way. </li>
<li>China to the rescue? China needs a stable currency, at least not a weaker one. </li>
</ul>


The catalyst: Japan’s Vice Finance Minister. ‘The current weakening of the yen is not in line with fundamentals and is clearly driven by speculation.’
As the Bank of Japan will not or only marginally hike its policy rate from here, the interest rate differential can only go one way. 
China to the rescue? China needs a stable currency, at least not a weaker one. 


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from...

Steno Research

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

The dovish tone from Powell led to a dollar rally, with potential future rate hikes and mixed signals for FX traders, particularly impacting Asian...

At Any Rate

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with...

Steno Research

A Dicey Short-Term FX Trade

Will this currency finally outperform after the latest monetary policy decisions? This is a short motivation for what will likely be a short-term...

Jeroen Blokland

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