Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yangzijiang Financial Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Share buybacks can be used for employee compensation plans, such as share option schemes or employee share purchase plans, as well as for long-term capital management.</li><li>As at Nov 13, nearly 80 primary-listed companies have repurchased their shares on-market this year, amounting to S$1.03 billion in buyback consideration.</li><li>In 2024 to Nov 13, CLI bought back 126.2 million shares at an average price of S$2.72 per share.</li></ul>

Share buybacks can be used for employee compensation plans, such as share option schemes or employee share purchase plans, as well as for long-term capital management.As at Nov 13, nearly 80 primary-listed companies have repurchased their shares on-market this year, amounting to S$1.03 billion in buyback consideration.In 2024 to Nov 13, CLI bought back 126.2 million shares at an average price of S$2.72 per share.

CapitaLand Investment leads buyback consideration tally in 2024 till Nov 13

<ul><li>In Oct, the STI generated a 0.7% decline in total return, with the FTSE ASEAN All-Share Index declining in total return and FTSE Asia Pacific Index declining 8%.</li><li>The trio of STI Banks averaged a 0.7% total return while the iEdge SG Adv Manufacturing Index declined 7% and the iEdge S-REIT Index declined 5.4%.</li><li>As detailed in the table above, among the 20 stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflow in Oct, Hongkong Land, Singapore Post, Wee Hur Holdings, DFI Retail Group Holdings and SATS generated the strongest total returns on the month, averaging 15.4% total returns.</li></ul>

In Oct, the STI generated a 0.7% decline in total return, with the FTSE ASEAN All-Share Index declining in total return and FTSE Asia Pacific Index declining 8%.The trio of STI Banks averaged a 0.7% total return while the iEdge SG Adv Manufacturing Index declined 7% and the iEdge S-REIT Index declined 5.4%.As detailed in the table above, among the 20 stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflow in Oct, Hongkong Land, Singapore Post, Wee Hur Holdings, DFI Retail Group Holdings and SATS generated the strongest total returns on the month, averaging 15.4% total returns.

HKL, SingPost & Wee Hur Led Net Institutional Inflow & Gainers in October

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>China's State Administration for Market Regulation has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0917/2024091700839.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">formally accepted</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology  (301296 CH)</a> (XJF)'s filing. That's positive. SAMR previously okayed XJF's initial 28.22% stake from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>.</li>
<li>No new update on co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong's <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0806/2024080601644.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">non-binding Offer</a>. </li>
<li>Separately, the EGM requisitioned by XJF to appoint two XJF-friendly directors progresses.</li>
</ul>


China's State Administration for Market Regulation has formally accepted  Shandong Xinjufeng Technology  (301296 CH) (XJF)'s filing. That's positive. SAMR previously okayed XJF's initial 28.22% stake from Jardine Matheson (JM SP).
No new update on co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong's non-binding Offer. 
Separately, the EGM requisitioned by XJF to appoint two XJF-friendly directors progresses.


GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF's Filing

<ul>
<li>For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. </li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of September 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$23bn. 
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~43%. The average premium YTD is ~44%
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

Singapore

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

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Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

CapitaLand Investment leads buyback consideration tally in 2024 till Nov 13

Share buybacks can be used for employee compensation plans, such as share option schemes or employee share purchase plans, as well as for...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

HKL, SingPost & Wee Hur Led Net Institutional Inflow & Gainers in October

In Oct, the STI generated a 0.7% decline in total return, with the FTSE ASEAN All-Share Index declining in total return and FTSE Asia Pacific...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

GAPack (468 HK): SAMR Rests On XJF's Filing

The Circular concerning the EGM requisitioned by XJF to appoint two XJF-friendly directors has been dispatched. The vote is the 18th Oct. GAPACK...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2024: GTJA/Haitong Sec, Korea Zinc/YPP, Hotel Property, Virgin Money, Raysum

For the month of Sep, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$23bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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