Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>During the lunch break, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK</a>)  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1220/2024122000232.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions - the final approvals concerned outbound direct investments.</li>
<li>The Offer Document, including the IFA opinion, is expected to be dispatched  in seven days - or 27th December, at which time, the Offer will be open to acceptances.</li>
<li>Evidently the Jeff Bi/Gong Hong MGO isn't materialising any time soon. Provided the IFA is supportive - and that should now be known - management should unanimously back XJF's Offer.</li>
</ul>


During the lunch break, Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)  announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions - the final approvals concerned outbound direct investments.
The Offer Document, including the IFA opinion, is expected to be dispatched  in seven days - or 27th December, at which time, the Offer will be open to acceptances.
Evidently the Jeff Bi/Gong Hong MGO isn't materialising any time soon. Provided the IFA is supportive - and that should now be known - management should unanimously back XJF's Offer.


GAPack (468 HK): XJF Satisfies Pre-Cons. Management Should Back Terms

<ul>
<li>After publishing my insight (<a href="https://skr.ma/y1QWE" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading "Cheap"</a>) last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.</li>
<li>Which is cool. I'm big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I've done some digging, including a back and forth with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>.</li>
<li>The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You've been coming to the right place.</li>
</ul>


After publishing my insight (Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading "Cheap") last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.
Which is cool. I'm big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I've done some digging, including a back and forth with Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You've been coming to the right place.


Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV

<ul>
<li>CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong (2888 TT)</a>'s shares, so as to make the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.</li>
</ul>


CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost Shin Kong (2888 TT)'s shares, so as to make the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub at 12-month lows.</li>
<li>Recent interim results were okay. Stripping out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dfi-retail-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7427:1" rel="noopener">DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP)</a>'s outperformance, the remainder of the Jardine stable delivered weaker numbers. </li>
<li>Further afield, the implied stub is marginally below the long-term average since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> circularity was collapsed in April 2021. </li>
</ul>


I see Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s discount to NAV and implied stub at 12-month lows.
Recent interim results were okay. Stripping out DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP)'s outperformance, the remainder of the Jardine stable delivered weaker numbers. 
Further afield, the implied stub is marginally below the long-term average since the Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) circularity was collapsed in April 2021. 


Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading "Cheap"

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Jardine Matheson Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is nothing in the main investments at JM that suggests the grind lower on ROE and net profit will suddenly reverse, rather it should continue</li>
<li>Astra International, Hong Kong Land, and DFI Retail are key to JM and there is little joy here, with HKL potentially having more valuation impairments</li>
<li>Quarterly figures from Astra, which are a window on the current interim for JM, are not positive, with the worst quarter in over one year</li>
</ul>


There is nothing in the main investments at JM that suggests the grind lower on ROE and net profit will suddenly reverse, rather it should continue
Astra International, Hong Kong Land, and DFI Retail are key to JM and there is little joy here, with HKL potentially having more valuation impairments
Quarterly figures from Astra, which are a window on the current interim for JM, are not positive, with the worst quarter in over one year


Jardine Matheson - The Slow Grind Lower Can Continue

Singapore

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

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Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)

GAPack (468 HK): XJF Satisfies Pre-Cons. Management Should Back Terms

Bi/Hong will likely stick to their guns, and reject XJF's offer, and hope the deal fails. Minority shareholders should ignore that advice and tender.

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV

I've bolted on US$0.5bn to NAV. That adjustment doesn't move the needle. Look to set up the stub: Long JMH, short DFI, HKL, MO & JC&C on a...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading "Cheap"

I’ve received some feedback questioning my NAV calculations. Happy to take up the challenge and make adjustments where needed. I flesh out more...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson - The Slow Grind Lower Can Continue

Results just out for Jardine Matheson, with a loss of $40m compared with a profit $556m and underlying profit is down 33%, all comparatives are...

Daniel Tabbush

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