Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As the ex-dividend date in Korea has been before the dividend is determined, SSFs trade at a discount based on the anticipated dividend rather than adjusting dividend settlement proceeds explicitly.</li>
<li>The current dividend arbitrage yield for the financial companies can be seen as reflecting the postponement of the ex-dividend date to the next year.</li>
<li>We should pay attention to those with a significant dividend arbitrage yield but that did not amend their articles of incorporation earlier this year.</li>
</ul>


As the ex-dividend date in Korea has been before the dividend is determined, SSFs trade at a discount based on the anticipated dividend rather than adjusting dividend settlement proceeds explicitly.
The current dividend arbitrage yield for the financial companies can be seen as reflecting the postponement of the ex-dividend date to the next year.
We should pay attention to those with a significant dividend arbitrage yield but that did not amend their articles of incorporation earlier this year.


Understanding & Assessing Yearend Dividend Arbitrage Structure Using Futures in Korea

<ul>
<li>Korea's local market is perceiving the present HMG investment as a crucial indicator, signaling the initiation of an intense proxy battle for Korea Zinc.</li>
<li>Given the relatively constrained nature of the neutral minority stakes, falling below 30%, there is considerable attention on the potential for a immediate-term share buying race.</li>
<li>This is expected to trigger momentum trading flows directed at Korea Zinc. Such a scenario might lead the stock price to venture into an overshooting zone.</li>
</ul>


Korea's local market is perceiving the present HMG investment as a crucial indicator, signaling the initiation of an intense proxy battle for Korea Zinc.
Given the relatively constrained nature of the neutral minority stakes, falling below 30%, there is considerable attention on the potential for a immediate-term share buying race.
This is expected to trigger momentum trading flows directed at Korea Zinc. Such a scenario might lead the stock price to venture into an overshooting zone.


Unveiling the Potential of Korea Zinc's Emerging Proxy Battle

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>With <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a></strong> trading around a one-year low NAV discount, the Hanwha Group has made a Tender Offer for 8% of shares outstanding at ₩30,000/share.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Hanwha are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


With Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) trading around a one-year low NAV discount, the Hanwha Group has made a Tender Offer for 8% of shares outstanding at ₩30,000/share.
Preceding my comments on Hanwha are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Hanwha Corp's Steep Discount & Tender Offer

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.</li>
<li>These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 3Q 2024.
Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.
These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal (Doosan Corp vs. Doosan Enerbility; Hyundai Mobis vs Hyundai Motor).


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

South Korea

Hyundai Steel Company is an electric furnace steel maker.  The Company manufactures concrete reinforcing bars, H beams, stainless steel sheets, cast steel, and other steel products.  Hyundai Steel sells its products to the domestic and overseas markets.

Poongsan Corporation manufactures non-ferrous metal and defense-related products.  The Company also makes coin blanks, cans, stainless steel strips, lead frame alloys, tin plated strips, bars, and rods & wires.  It also produces precision products such as lead frames for semiconductors, machinery, and dies & gauges.

Sam-A Aluminum Co., Ltd. manufactures aluminum foils for cigarette and food packaging, window frames, and related products.  The Company also produces aluminum powder used for painting ships, automobiles, and bridges.

TCC Steel manufactures and sells electrolytic and copper coated tinplates.  The Company supplies its products to the food, beverage, electronic, and automobile industries. TCC Steel also operates plant construction services as well as real estate leasing businesses.

POSCO M-TECH CO.,LTD. manufactures steel strips used for packing.  The Company also produces deoxidizers used in the steel-making process.  Under  a long-term supply contact, the Company distributes a significant portion of  its output to POSCO.

Sam Kang M&T Co., Ltd. manufactures special steel pipes used for petroleum refining and ocean floor exploration.  Sam Kang also produces steel blocks for ship building, and cranes that is used in industry area.

SeAH Steel Holdings Corporation manufactures and sells steel pipes. The Company produces and sells spiral, stainless, titanium tubes, and other products. SeAH Steel Holdings markets its products throughout Korea.

Seah Besteel Corp. manufactures specified steel products such as H-beam, alloy steel, and carbon steel.  The Company also produces train and auto parts.

KISWIRE Ltd. manufactures secondary steel products, such as wire ropes and wire strands for electric wire and springs.  The Company markets to the shipbuilding and construction industries, and exports products to overseas markets.  KISWIRE also has a financial subsidiary.

KG Dongbusteel Co., Ltd. manufactures cold rolled sheets, such as commercial quality cold rolled steel sheets, deep drawing quality cold rolled sheets, and stabilized deep drawing cold rolled sheets.  The Company also offers special cold rolled sheets and plating base metals.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates coal businesses. The Company mines, processes, and distributes coal, cokes, coal chemical products, and other products. Huaibei Mining Holdings also produces methanol, crude benzene, ammonium sulfate, and other products.

Korea Zinc Co., Ltd. specializes in non-ferrous metal smelting industry.  The Company manufactures zinc ingots, electrolytic gold, silver, lead, sulfuric acid, and copper.  Korea Zinc provides its products to domestic and overseas markets.

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Korea Zinc (010130 KS)

Understanding & Assessing Yearend Dividend Arbitrage Structure Using Futures in Korea

This post offers insights into the framework of yearend dividend arbitrage trading using futures in the Korean market and assesses the current...

Sanghyun Park

Unveiling the Potential of Korea Zinc's Emerging Proxy Battle

This post explores the potential of a fierce proxy battle between two founding families of Korea Zinc as this development is expected to trigger...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Hanwha Corp's Steep Discount & Tender Offer

HC is trading cheap. The family thinks so also and seeking majority control. There is also the pro-ration angle attached to the Tender Offer. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

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