Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao's revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter</li>
<li>EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin &lt; FYQ2</li>
<li>Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao's revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter
EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin &lt; FYQ2
Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers


CaiNiao's FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda</li>
<li>Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December</li>
<li>In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag</li>
</ul>


December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda
Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December
In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products(+/+/-/-)</li>
<li>PDD/ZTO/1519 HK: PDD partners with ZTO and J&amp;T for upcoming “Open during Spring Festival” event (+/+/+)</li>
<li>PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/ SE/ CPNG/ MELI: Temu planning to add 3P model (+/-)</li>
</ul>


TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products(+/+/-/-)
PDD/ZTO/1519 HK: PDD partners with ZTO and J&amp;T for upcoming “Open during Spring Festival” event (+/+/+)
PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/ SE/ CPNG/ MELI: Temu planning to add 3P model (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

<ul>
<li>Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423</li>
<li>The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex</li>
<li>Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24</li>
</ul>


Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423
The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex
Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24


STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

<ul>
<li>BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK: Taobao/Tmall plans to direct traffic to stores and logistics providers with better service (+/+/-/-/-)</li>
<li>1219 HK/PDD/SHEIN/BABA: Temu negotiating with J&amp;T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou's Playlet Business Expanding Rapidly, DAU Reaches 270 Million(+)</li>
</ul>


BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK: Taobao/Tmall plans to direct traffic to stores and logistics providers with better service (+/+/-/-/-)
1219 HK/PDD/SHEIN/BABA: Temu negotiating with J&amp;T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou's Playlet Business Expanding Rapidly, DAU Reaches 270 Million(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

Hong Kong

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

YTO Express Holdings Limited provides freight and logistics services. The Company offers air freight, marine transportation, information technology capabilities, warehousing, order assembly, and other related services.  YTO Express Holdings provides services worldwide.

YTO Express (International) Holdings (6123 HK)

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. provides shipping related services. The Company offers shipping, logistics, shipbuilding and ship repair services, ship trading agency services, marine insurance brokerage services, marine equipment and spare parts, coating products, and marine fuel and other related shipping products. COSCO International serves clients around the world.

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

Financiere de l'Odet is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers transport and international logistics, the distribution of energy, the production of plastic films and thin paper, the manufacture of specialized terminals and systems, and the management of investments in plantations and in other market areas, including media and communication.

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. provides multimodal transportation services and logistics solutions. The Company operates a network of offices in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, and the Middle East. C.H. Robinson provides a variety of logistics services, such as fresh produce sourcing and freight consolidation.

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

Compania de Distribucion Integral Logista Holdings, S.A. operates as an international logistical solution provider. The Company offers logistics, parcel and express courier transport, industrial parcel transport, and long distance and full truck load transport management services.

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

CaiNiao's FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

CaiNiao results from FYQ3 were impressive, with revenue and EBITA margin both up sharply compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

Ctrip teams up with Kuaishou to boost travel offerings; PDD collaborates with ZTO and J&T for Spring Festival event; and Temu considers adding 3P...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Plummeting prices and already-low profitability could force second-tier Chinese express names STO and Yunda to be part of industry consolidation in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

Tmall aims to improve service for stores and logistics providers;Temu negotiates with J&T for overseas last-mile services;Kuaishou's Playlet...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CaiNiao's FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

CaiNiao results from FYQ3 were impressive, with revenue and EBITA margin both up sharply compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:TCOM/1024 HK/3690 HK/780 HK/PDD/ZTO/1519 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/CPNG/MELI

​Ctrip teams up with Kuaishou to boost travel offerings; PDD collaborates with ZTO and J&T for Spring Festival event; and Temu considers adding 3P...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Plummeting prices and already-low profitability could force second-tier Chinese express names STO and Yunda to be part of industry consolidation in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

Tmall aims to improve service for stores and logistics providers;Temu negotiates with J&T for overseas last-mile services;Kuaishou's Playlet...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ctrip teams up with Kuaishou to boost travel offerings; PDD collaborates with ZTO and J&T for Spring Festival event; and Temu considers adding 3P...