Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).</li>
<li>The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.</li>
</ul>


Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.


SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

<ul>
<li>Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins</li>
<li>It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs</li>
<li>Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins
It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs
Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID


ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

<ul>
<li>SF Holding's HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th</li>
<li>SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media</li>
<li>About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors</li>
</ul>


SF Holding's HKEX listing launched on Tuesday, November 19th; deal to be priced by 26th
SF hopes to raise about US$800 mn, less than originally anticipated in financial media
About one quarter of the offering will be taken up by ten cornerstone investors


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

<ul>
<li>Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423</li>
<li>The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex</li>
<li>Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24</li>
</ul>


Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423
The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex
Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24


STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

SF Holding seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through its Hong Kong listing. Our valuation analysis suggests that the offering is attractive at the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

ZTO's focus on price over volume share gains simply hasn't worked so far in 2024. Until management developts a path towards a return to profitable...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Deal Goes Live in HK, Company Hopes to Raise ~US$800 Mn, Less Than Anticipated

SF Holding's long-anticipated secondary offering in Hong Kong has gone live. This quick update provides basic information about the offering....

Tracking Traffic

STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Plummeting prices and already-low profitability could force second-tier Chinese express names STO and Yunda to be part of industry consolidation in...

Tracking Traffic

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