Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)</li>
<li>BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  </li>
</ul>


NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)
ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)
BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

<ul>
<li>BABA/002352.SZ/1519.HK: Taobao/Tmall adjusts algorithm to favor merchants with better service capabilities (+/+/-)</li>
<li>3690 HK: Meituan QuanQuan shift from direct operating into third party operating, and cut nearly 200 BD job positions(+)</li>
<li>700 HK/259960 KRX:The development team of &lt;PUBG&gt; has unveiled its major game update plan for 2024.(+)  </li>
</ul>


BABA/002352.SZ/1519.HK: Taobao/Tmall adjusts algorithm to favor merchants with better service capabilities (+/+/-)
3690 HK: Meituan QuanQuan shift from direct operating into third party operating, and cut nearly 200 BD job positions(+)
700 HK/259960 KRX:The development team of &lt;PUBG&gt; has unveiled its major game update plan for 2024.(+)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/002352 SZ/1519 HK/3690 HK/META/700 HK/259960 KRX

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

Hong Kong

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

YTO Express Holdings Limited provides freight and logistics services. The Company offers air freight, marine transportation, information technology capabilities, warehousing, order assembly, and other related services.  YTO Express Holdings provides services worldwide.

YTO Express (International) Holdings (6123 HK)

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. provides shipping related services. The Company offers shipping, logistics, shipbuilding and ship repair services, ship trading agency services, marine insurance brokerage services, marine equipment and spare parts, coating products, and marine fuel and other related shipping products. COSCO International serves clients around the world.

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

Financiere de l'Odet is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers transport and international logistics, the distribution of energy, the production of plastic films and thin paper, the manufacture of specialized terminals and systems, and the management of investments in plantations and in other market areas, including media and communication.

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. provides multimodal transportation services and logistics solutions. The Company operates a network of offices in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, and the Middle East. C.H. Robinson provides a variety of logistics services, such as fresh produce sourcing and freight consolidation.

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

Compania de Distribucion Integral Logista Holdings, S.A. operates as an international logistical solution provider. The Company offers logistics, parcel and express courier transport, industrial parcel transport, and long distance and full truck load transport management services.

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/002352 SZ/1519 HK/3690 HK/META/700 HK/259960 KRX

Major e-commerce platforms adjust algorithms for better merchant service, Meituan shifts to third-party operations, PUBG announces major game...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

​ has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/002352 SZ/1519 HK/3690 HK/META/700 HK/259960 KRX

​Major e-commerce platforms adjust algorithms for better merchant service, Meituan shifts to third-party operations, PUBG announces major game...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Major e-commerce platforms adjust algorithms for better merchant service, Meituan shifts to third-party operations, PUBG announces major game...