Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.</li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.</li>
<li>The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flat-glass-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1108:1" rel="noopener">Flat Glass (6865 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifetech-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13181:1" rel="noopener">Lifetech Scientific (1302 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), Flat Glass (6865 HK), Lifetech Scientific (1302 HK), and PCCW Ltd (8 HK).


HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.</li>
<li>The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.</li>
<li>J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. </li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

<ul>
<li>On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'</li>
</ul>


On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise
We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise
We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'


J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

Hong Kong

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

SITC International Holdings Company Ltd. offers marine shipping services.  The Company offers container liner shipping, freight forwarding, customs clearance, shipping agency, and ship brokerage services.  SITC operates in Asia.

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

YTO Express Holdings Limited provides freight and logistics services. The Company offers air freight, marine transportation, information technology capabilities, warehousing, order assembly, and other related services.  YTO Express Holdings provides services worldwide.

YTO Express (International) Holdings (6123 HK)

Shenzhen International Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment, construction, and operation of logistic infrastructure facilities, as well as offers value-added logistic services. Shenzhen International serves customers worldwide.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. provides shipping related services. The Company offers shipping, logistics, shipbuilding and ship repair services, ship trading agency services, marine insurance brokerage services, marine equipment and spare parts, coating products, and marine fuel and other related shipping products. COSCO International serves clients around the world.

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

Financiere de l'Odet is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers transport and international logistics, the distribution of energy, the production of plastic films and thin paper, the manufacture of specialized terminals and systems, and the management of investments in plantations and in other market areas, including media and communication.

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. provides multimodal transportation services and logistics solutions. The Company operates a network of offices in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, and the Middle East. C.H. Robinson provides a variety of logistics services, such as fresh produce sourcing and freight consolidation.

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

Compania de Distribucion Integral Logista Holdings, S.A. operates as an international logistical solution provider. The Company offers logistics, parcel and express courier transport, industrial parcel transport, and long distance and full truck load transport management services.

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

HK CEO & Director Dealings (5th Jul 2024): J&T Global Express, Flat Glass, Lifetech Scientific, PCCW

The data is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. The key stocks mentioned include: J&T Global (1519 HK), Flat...

David Blennerhassett

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh