Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the 7th occasion in the mid-1960s, the recession arrived 46 months after curve inversion). The yield curve (difference between the 10-year bond and 3-month T-bill yields) has not yet inverted, but is rapidly flattening (with a positive differential of only 1 percentage point currently). If the Fed's balance sheet shrinks at the pace envisaged by the Fed, a…

In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the 7th occasion in the mid-1960s, the recession arrived 46 months after curve inversion). The yield curve (difference between the 10-year bond and 3-month T-bill yields) has not yet inverted, but is rapidly flattening (with a positive differential of only 1 percentage point currently). If the Fed's balance sheet shrinks at the pace envisaged by the Fed, a…

Why a Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet Will Inevitably Lead to Recession in 2018

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&amp;P 1,918 with scope of reaching for 1,950 thus the most probable target comes in at 1,938.We touted putting on some risk and reducing shorts last week in anticipation of a risk on bounce sequence to re cycle shorts into.WTI called for rise from 28 was off the mark with a low at 26.19; rally target is pattern resistance at 34 but will have immediate trouble above 32. Upside from here will be harder. MT bear target in the 25 region.USD was due for profit taking versus the CAD in particular (slipping below our 1.42 dip target) but also versus some EM FX but our strategic bullish USD view remains firm against EM FX and commodity currencies. Euro is losing ground on stimulus jawboning while the GBP is oversold with sell resistance now at 1.45; our macro 1.35 target is in sight. USD/JPY to see rally to 119.40 if not 120 for a key turn lower again.EEM kissed our 27.50 major target to cover some shorts and the break above resistance on Friday triggered another reduce point for shorts with a 31-32 target to re cycle shorts for test on 26. Asian FX - Lock in gains in THB and MYR shorts. KRW and SGD shorts re cycle/add on chart dips. INR hit 68 in line with a Nifty low.Cycles – The current snap back rally cycle will see price swings moderate and expected to last into early February when a turn is very probable around the 5th.

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&amp;P 1,918 with scope of reaching for 1,950 thus the most probable target comes in at 1,938.We touted putting on some risk and reducing shorts last week in anticipation of a risk on bounce sequence to re cycle shorts into.WTI called for rise from 28 was off the mark with a low at 26.19; rally target is pattern resistance at 34 but will have immediate trouble above 32. Upside from here will be harder. MT bear target in the 25 region.USD was due for profit taking versus the CAD in particular (slipping below our 1.42 dip target) but also versus some EM FX but our strategic bullish USD view remains firm against EM FX and commodity currencies. Euro is losing ground on stimulus jawboning while the GBP is oversold with sell resistance now at 1.45; our macro 1.35 target is in sight. USD/JPY to see rally to 119.40 if not 120 for a key turn lower again.EEM kissed our 27.50 major target to cover some shorts and the break above resistance on Friday triggered another reduce point for shorts with a 31-32 target to re cycle shorts for test on 26. Asian FX - Lock in gains in THB and MYR shorts. KRW and SGD shorts re cycle/add on chart dips. INR hit 68 in line with a Nifty low.Cycles – The current snap back rally cycle will see price swings moderate and expected to last into early February when a turn is very probable around the 5th.

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Why a Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet Will Inevitably Lead to Recession in 2018

In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Measuring Rally Caps

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&P...

Thomas Schroeder

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