Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Fund Manager Meeting Notes: Economists Back to Drawing Board

Unambiguously Hawkish Powell to Trigger Higher Yields and a Stronger Dollar

With the Inflation Target Breached, Can the Fed Postpone Signalling Faster Rate Hikes?

Trump Now Has a Clear Path to Damage the Fed, Even as He Loses Political Ground

Trump as a One-Man Wrecking Crew for World Order

The Trump Ineptitude Trade: Over or Just Beginning?

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

<p><strong>In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the 7th occasion in the mid-1960s, the recession arrived 46 months after curve inversion). The yield curve (difference between the 10-year bond and 3-month T-bill yields) has not yet inverted, but is rapidly flattening (with a positive differential of only 1 percentage point currently). If the Fed's balance sheet shrinks at the pace envisaged by the Fed, a</strong>…</p>

In the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has predicted a recession within 15 months on 6 of the previous 7 occasions it has occurred (on the 7th occasion in the mid-1960s, the recession arrived 46 months after curve inversion). The yield curve (difference between the 10-year bond and 3-month T-bill yields) has not yet inverted, but is rapidly flattening (with a positive differential of only 1 percentage point currently). If the Fed's balance sheet shrinks at the pace envisaged by the Fed, a…

Why a Shrinking Fed Balance Sheet Will Inevitably Lead to Recession in 2018