Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>We expect iron ore to remain rangebound between 90 and 110 USD/ton in FY25, which is in line with the band it has maintained over the past six months. </li>
<li><span>Iron ore players like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> can maintain high single-digit dividend yields at USD 100/ton. We see short-term opportunities in these names.</span></li>
<li><span>For small-cap specialists, check out our research on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-positive-developments-at-iron-ridge-and-other-catalysts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts.</a> The company (trailing 5x PE) is poised to triple its production.</span></li>
</ul>


We expect iron ore to remain rangebound between 90 and 110 USD/ton in FY25, which is in line with the band it has maintained over the past six months. 
Iron ore players like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) can maintain high single-digit dividend yields at USD 100/ton. We see short-term opportunities in these names.
For small-cap specialists, check out our research on Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts. The company (trailing 5x PE) is poised to triple its production.


Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. </li>
<li>Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.</li>
<li>Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.</li>
</ul>


Price Movements: SGX Iron Ore Futures rose $1.95/ton last week, peaking at $107.30/ton but faced increased resistance and waning momentum in the later part of the week. 
Economic Influence: Expanded Chinese stimulus initially boosted prices, but weak CPI and loan data revealed sustained economic headwinds, dampening a lasting rally.
Technical Indicators: A flat-top pattern, narrowing MACD, and declining RSI point to bearish potential.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

<ul>
<li>We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> to the iron ore price. We try to answer what's priced in at 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>We provide sensitivity tables for both stocks based on a range of 90-130 USD/ton. At 100 USD/ton, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)/Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)  </a> trade at 7.4/6.4% dividend yields.</li>
<li>Bullish iron ore participants subscribing to the 130 USD/ton forecast can see yields of 16.3%/11.4%. This forecast will be achievable if the China stimulus provides the expected impetus.</li>
</ul>


We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer what's priced in at 100 USD/ton.
We provide sensitivity tables for both stocks based on a range of 90-130 USD/ton. At 100 USD/ton, Vale (VALE US)/Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)   trade at 7.4/6.4% dividend yields.
Bullish iron ore participants subscribing to the 130 USD/ton forecast can see yields of 16.3%/11.4%. This forecast will be achievable if the China stimulus provides the expected impetus.


High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.</li>
<li>Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.</li>
<li>Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures January 2025 contract fell $1.85/ton, closing at $102.55/ton on 6/Dec, with prices trading in a $3.45/ton range.
Prices traded above the weekly pivot point of $103.20/ton until 6/Dec but failed to breach the R1 resistance at $106.05/ton, reflecting constrained upward momentum.
Volume Put/Call ratio rose to 1.47; March 2025 expiry saw the highest put volume. Implied volatility increased modestly for December expiry but declined for January and February.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up to our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-small-cap-iron-ore-miner-with-great-upside" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside. </a>The flagship mine added <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/02890696.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">another 5 years to the existing 3-year mine life</a>. </li>
<li>At a 60 AUD/ton operating margin for 1.4 million tons/Yr (assuming 100 USD/ton iron ore price), this is an additional 60-65 mn AUD of cash profit for 5 years.  </li>
<li>The company has commenced production in the Shine iron ore mine (1.2 mtpa) and will shortly begin production in the Beebyn-W11 mine (1.5 mtpa) in early 2025 after obtaining permits.</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initiation, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside. The flagship mine added another 5 years to the existing 3-year mine life. 
At a 60 AUD/ton operating margin for 1.4 million tons/Yr (assuming 100 USD/ton iron ore price), this is an additional 60-65 mn AUD of cash profit for 5 years.  
The company has commenced production in the Shine iron ore mine (1.2 mtpa) and will shortly begin production in the Beebyn-W11 mine (1.5 mtpa) in early 2025 after obtaining permits.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore

We summarize our estimates for iron ore pricing in CY25. We also provide some interesting equity/options-related opportunities for market...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Mint Finance

High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore

We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer the question...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

Iron ore futures faced mixed signals last week, with SGX contracts declining amid weaker demand drivers despite seasonal tailwinds, while DCE...

Mint Finance

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) is poised to increase its production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons in the next two months, bringing this 200 mn AUD...

Sameer Taneja

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Iron Ore Tracker (6-Jan-2025): What Does the New Year Hold in Store For Iron Ore

We summarize our estimates for iron ore pricing in CY25. We also provide some interesting equity/options-related opportunities for market...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/​50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

​SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.

Mint Finance

High Yield Iron Ore Stocks: VALE US/FMG AU Sensitivity to Iron Ore

We summarize the sensitivity of high-yield stocks Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to the iron ore price. We try to answer the question...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Options Weekly 2024/49] Puts Dominate as IO Prices Slip

Iron ore futures faced mixed signals last week, with SGX contracts declining amid weaker demand drivers despite seasonal tailwinds, while DCE...

Mint Finance

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) is poised to increase its production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons in the next two months, bringing this 200 mn AUD...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/50] Stimulus Rally Fizzles

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose but faced resistance due to weak Chinese economic data, indicating potential bearish trend ahead.