Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For 2nm technology, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> should start <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  </li>
<li>TSMC's competitors, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.</li>
<li>To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.</li>
</ul>


For 2nm technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) should start Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  
TSMC's competitors, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.
To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Q3 revenue is expected to reach $22.4-23.2 billion, reflecting strong demand for TSMC's 3nm and AI-driven technologies. This marks a significant 14.4% increase from Q2's $20.82 billion, despite global headwinds.</li>
<li>Operating profit margins are forecasted to be between 42.5% and 44.5%, highlighting TSMC’s efforts to maintain profitability. However, pressures from rising operational costs and competitive advancements remain a challenge.</li>
<li>EPS is projected at $1.76, up 40% YoY, driven by robust AI chip demand. Despite this, TSMC faces slowing consumer electronics demand, particularly in smartphones, which could affect future growth.</li>
</ul>


Q3 revenue is expected to reach $22.4-23.2 billion, reflecting strong demand for TSMC's 3nm and AI-driven technologies. This marks a significant 14.4% increase from Q2's $20.82 billion, despite global headwinds.
Operating profit margins are forecasted to be between 42.5% and 44.5%, highlighting TSMC’s efforts to maintain profitability. However, pressures from rising operational costs and competitive advancements remain a challenge.
EPS is projected at $1.76, up 40% YoY, driven by robust AI chip demand. Despite this, TSMC faces slowing consumer electronics demand, particularly in smartphones, which could affect future growth.


TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors to Eye AI Demand Boost, Margins in Focus

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Cerebras Systems  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cerebras Systems, a fast-growing maker of wafer-scale AI chips, which power the world’s largest supercomputers, will reveal IPO terms soon.</li>
<li>Given the company’s hyper-growth trajectory, $1B+ deal with UAE’s G42 and unique architecture, I expect Cerebras Systems is likely to get a premium valuation.  </li>
<li>The AI company plans to raise up to $1B while selling stockholders will offer additional Class A shares in this IPO.</li>
</ul>


Cerebras Systems, a fast-growing maker of wafer-scale AI chips, which power the world’s largest supercomputers, will reveal IPO terms soon.
Given the company’s hyper-growth trajectory, $1B+ deal with UAE’s G42 and unique architecture, I expect Cerebras Systems is likely to get a premium valuation.  
The AI company plans to raise up to $1B while selling stockholders will offer additional Class A shares in this IPO.


Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

<ul>
<li>Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.</li>
<li>The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. </li>
<li>Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.</li>
</ul>


Cerebras Systems, a high-growth Ai chip maker and hardware company that builds AI supercomputers with scalable architecture, has filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq.
The AI company plans to raise up to $1B in upcoming IPO. Citigroup and Barclays are the lead bankers on the offering. 
Cerebras Systems may become the biggest disruptor since NVIDIA. The company’s growth is exceptionally high for any AI chip maker.


Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

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Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors to Eye AI Demand Boost, Margins in Focus

TSMC is expected to report strong Q3 revenue growth driven by AI and advanced nodes, while facing pressure from weakening margins and slowing...

Mint Finance

Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

In my follow-up piece, I discuss Cerebras Systems valuation analysis, including peers, multiples and the company’s revenues forecast for 2024 and...

Andrei Zakharov

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

Cerebras Systems, a manufacturer of the largest AI chip ever built and hardware company that launched supercomputers in the United States, filed...

Andrei Zakharov

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Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

​TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors to Eye AI Demand Boost, Margins in Focus

TSMC is expected to report strong Q3 revenue growth driven by AI and advanced nodes, while facing pressure from weakening margins and slowing...

Mint Finance

Cerebras IPO Valuation Analysis: A Sky-High Valuation Will Not Last For Long

In my follow-up piece, I discuss Cerebras Systems valuation analysis, including peers, multiples and the company’s revenues forecast for 2024 and...

Andrei Zakharov

Cerebras IPO Preview: Does The Size Matter? Top-Tier VC Investors and $1B+ Deal With UAE’s G42

Cerebras Systems, a manufacturer of the largest AI chip ever built and hardware company that launched supercomputers in the United States, filed...

Andrei Zakharov

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...