Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's 2023 10K includes two new risk sections relating to its foundry plans and Smart Capital approach to funding them. </li>
<li>It labels its foundry plan as "Highly Risky" and rates its chances of success as "highly uncertain"</li>
<li>They also helpfully warn that they have "limited experience" with the third party foundry business, just FYI</li>
</ul>


Intel's 2023 10K includes two new risk sections relating to its foundry plans and Smart Capital approach to funding them. 
It labels its foundry plan as "Highly Risky" and rates its chances of success as "highly uncertain"
They also helpfully warn that they have "limited experience" with the third party foundry business, just FYI


Intel Warns That Its Foundry Strategy Is "Highly Risky" & Its Success Is "Highly Uncertain"

<ul>
<li>Apollo-Managed funds and affiliates will lead an investment of $11 billion to acquire from Intel a 49% equity interest in a joint venture entity related to Intel’s Fab 34</li>
<li>This deal follows a similar mid-2022 deal with Brookfield to co-invest in two new leading edge fabs in Arizona at a cost of up to $30 billion</li>
<li>Why make the deal with Fab 34 in Ireland instead of the Ohio fab under construction?</li>
</ul>


Apollo-Managed funds and affiliates will lead an investment of $11 billion to acquire from Intel a 49% equity interest in a joint venture entity related to Intel’s Fab 34
This deal follows a similar mid-2022 deal with Brookfield to co-invest in two new leading edge fabs in Arizona at a cost of up to $30 billion
Why make the deal with Fab 34 in Ireland instead of the Ohio fab under construction?


<ul>
<li>Q124 revenue was $12.7 billion, down 17.5% QoQ but up 9% YoY.</li>
<li>Q224 revenue forecast of just $13 billion &amp; vague promise of full year YoY growth disappoints</li>
<li>Capacity constraints on wafer level assembly limited Meteor Lake shipments. So much for a maniacal focus on execution.</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenue was $12.7 billion, down 17.5% QoQ but up 9% YoY.
Q224 revenue forecast of just $13 billion &amp; vague promise of full year YoY growth disappoints
Capacity constraints on wafer level assembly limited Meteor Lake shipments. So much for a maniacal focus on execution.


<ul>
<li>In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role</li>
<li>He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O'Buckley, effective immediately</li>
<li>Mr. O'Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. </li>
</ul>


In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role
He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O'Buckley, effective immediately
Mr. O'Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. 


Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Entegris Inc. provides materials management products and services to the microelectronics industry on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides products such as wafer shippers, wafer transport and process carriers, pods, and work-in-process boxes.  Entegris also provides chemical delivery products such as valves, fittings, tubing, pipe, and containers.

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells silicon rods and silicon wafers. The Company's main products include 6 inch, 6.5 inch and 8 inch monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers.

LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel Warns That Its Foundry Strategy Is "Highly Risky" & Its Success Is "Highly Uncertain"

In its 2023 10K, Intel labels its foundry plan as "Highly Risky" and rates its chances of success as "Highly Uncertain". The company also admits to...

William Keating

Intel's Latest SCIP With Apollo. Yikes!

Apollo-Managed funds and affiliates will lead an investment of $11 billion to acquire from Intel a 49% equity interest in a joint venture entity...

William Keating

Intel. Just Check Back In Again In 2026

Q124 revenue $12.7 billion, -17.5% QoQ but +9% YoY. Q224 forecast of $13 billion, vague promise of full year YoY growth & capacity constraints on...

William Keating

Intel's Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills

Intel foundry gets a new chief, its third in as many years. The speed of the transition suggests that this was not a long & carefully planned out...

William Keating

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

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