Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

Vanguard (5347.TT): TSMC Invests over 3.7 Billion in Vanguard to Increase Its Holdings to 27%.

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends