Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

SAMSUNG: Less About Preliminary Results, More About the Tech Missteps. Samsung Pain Is HYNIX’s Gain

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Back to Higher Premium Range; ASE Premium Remains Collapsed

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Back Below 15%; ASE Short Interest Surging

United Microelectronics: Intel Foundry Should Take a Stake; Latest News Makes This More Likely

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.