Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TSMC. Full Steam Ahead Despite Tariff Threats & China Bans. For Now.

What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.</li>
<li>Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 


TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.