Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s in-specie distribution of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shares goes ex-dividend next Thursday. Passive Hang Seng trackers will sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> stock at the close on 4 January.</li>
<li>The passive impact is not very large but there could be selling from active investors, both before and after settlement of the shares that is scheduled for 24 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers</a> will receive 258.93m shares (HK$47.69bn; 6.5x ADV; 4.18% of shares outstanding) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and that will be an overhang on the stock for the near future.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK)'s in-specie distribution of Meituan (3690 HK) shares goes ex-dividend next Thursday. Passive Hang Seng trackers will sell Meituan (3690 HK) stock at the close on 4 January.
The passive impact is not very large but there could be selling from active investors, both before and after settlement of the shares that is scheduled for 24 March.

Prosus/Naspers will receive 258.93m shares (HK$47.69bn; 6.5x ADV; 4.18% of shares outstanding) of Meituan (3690 HK) and that will be an overhang on the stock for the near future.


Meituan (3690 HK): Passive Selling Next Week; Plus the Prosus Overhang

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Xinyi Solar Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.</li><li>Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.</li><li>I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.</li></ul>

The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.

<ul>
<li>On 27 May, the SFC and CSRC announced that they had agreed in principle to the inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds by mainland and Hong Kong exchanges in Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We currently see 6 ETF being eligible for inclusion in Southbound Connect and another couple that could be included at a subsequent review.</li>
<li>Increased mainland participation in the ETF market could lead to sustained premium/discount on the ETFs and this will be transmitted to index futures and affect pricing of short-term/long-term repo.</li>
</ul>


On 27 May, the SFC and CSRC announced that they had agreed in principle to the inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds by mainland and Hong Kong exchanges in Stock Connect.
We currently see 6 ETF being eligible for inclusion in Southbound Connect and another couple that could be included at a subsequent review.
Increased mainland participation in the ETF market could lead to sustained premium/discount on the ETFs and this will be transmitted to index futures and affect pricing of short-term/long-term repo.


ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Meituan (3690 HK): Passive Selling Next Week; Plus the Prosus Overhang

Passive Hang Seng trackers will sell Meituan next week, though the impact is not large. The overhang from the Prosus allocation is much bigger -...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

A brief look at global vol changes over the last week, analysing vol and skew moves. We identify some trades that make sense based on the shape of...

Simon Harris

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.

Untying The Gordian Knot

ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

SFC & CSRC have agreed in principle to the inclusion of HKEX listed ETFs in Southbound Connect. We see 6 ETFs as eligible for inclusion. There will...

Brian Freitas