Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. But who cares. They actually net sold US$2bn of everything which was not <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Bigger news, of course, was China's "Bazooka" which LOOKS exciting. Stocks are up 15-20% in four days. Lots of BIG numbers are being thrown around. Not everything is "real money."</li>
<li>It takes a little sleuthing to figure out where the real money is. For that, I suggest reading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-maybe-biggish-quasi-bazooka" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160299" rel="noopener">China's [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka</a> and more below.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. But who cares. They actually net sold US$2bn of everything which was not Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 
Bigger news, of course, was China's "Bazooka" which LOOKS exciting. Stocks are up 15-20% in four days. Lots of BIG numbers are being thrown around. Not everything is "real money."
It takes a little sleuthing to figure out where the real money is. For that, I suggest reading China's [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka and more below.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 Sep 2024); Everything Changed This Week

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Asia Ex-Japan fund managers continue to reduce their positions in Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing.</li>
<li>Percentage of funds invested and the average weight of the stock in portfolios have been on a downward trend since the recent peak in early 2023</li>
<li>Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting the stock</li>
</ul>


Asia Ex-Japan fund managers continue to reduce their positions in Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing.
Percentage of funds invested and the average weight of the stock in portfolios have been on a downward trend since the recent peak in early 2023
Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting the stock


HK Exchanges:  Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/black-sesame-international-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39894:1" rel="noopener">Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK)</a> will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> is already in Southbound Stock Connect while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/black-sesame-international-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39894:1" rel="noopener">Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK)</a> will be added from the open on 9 December.</li>
<li>There is a huge lock-up expiry for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/black-sesame-international-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39894:1" rel="noopener">Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK)</a> in February while the lock-up for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> cornerstone investors ends in March.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group (300 HK) and Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) after the close on 6 December.

Midea Group (300 HK) is already in Southbound Stock Connect while Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) will be added from the open on 9 December.
There is a huge lock-up expiry for Black Sesame International Holding (2533 HK) in February while the lock-up for Midea Group (300 HK) cornerstone investors ends in March.


HSCI Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) And Black Sesame (2533 HK) Added

Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>HKEX has launched weekly stock options for 10 listed equities on 2024-11-04.</li>
<li>We explore recent HKEX volume trends and believe this may be a positive catalyst for HKEX.</li>
<li>HKEX may prove to be a catalyst for more equity option product development in the region.</li>
</ul>


HKEX has launched weekly stock options for 10 listed equities on 2024-11-04.
We explore recent HKEX volume trends and believe this may be a positive catalyst for HKEX.
HKEX may prove to be a catalyst for more equity option product development in the region.


EQD | HKEX Weekly Equity Options off to a Strong Start

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The top line of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.</li>
<li>Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. </li>
<li>Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. </li>
</ul>


The top line of HKEX (388 HK) is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.
Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. 
Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. 


HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

Price Gauge
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HKEX (388 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 Sep 2024); Everything Changed This Week

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows remain positive, but they remain strong for Alibaba and negative for other tech - particularly Kuaioshou, Meituan, and...

Travis Lundy

HK Exchanges: Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds

Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting...

Steven Holden

HSCI Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) And Black Sesame (2533 HK) Added

Midea Group and Black Sesame will be added to the HSCI after the close on 6 December. Midea has also been added to the HSTECH Index. Black Sesame...

Brian Freitas

EQD | HKEX Weekly Equity Options off to a Strong Start

HKEX introduces weekly stock options, potentially boosting volume and driving further equity option product development in the region.

Nicholas Pezolano

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 Sep 2024); Everything Changed This Week

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows remain positive, but they remain strong for Alibaba and negative for other tech - particularly Kuaioshou, Meituan, and...

Travis Lundy

HK Exchanges: Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds

Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting...

Steven Holden

HSCI Index Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) And Black Sesame (2533 HK) Added

Midea Group and Black Sesame will be added to the HSCI after the close on 6 December. Midea has also been added to the HSTECH Index. Black Sesame...

Brian Freitas

EQD | HKEX Weekly Equity Options off to a Strong Start

​HKEX introduces weekly stock options, potentially boosting volume and driving further equity option product development in the region.

Nicholas Pezolano

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

HKEX introduces weekly stock options, potentially boosting volume and driving further equity option product development in the region.