Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.</li>
<li>China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.</li>
<li>Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.</li>
</ul>


Supply-Led Rally: Zinc has rebounded ~15% to ~US$3,000/t, driven by mine curtailments, smelter shutdowns, collapsing TCs, and low inventories.
China Stimulus Tailwind: Beijing’s CNY 1tn package lifts sentiment for galvanised steel, which makes up ~60% of zinc demand, reinforcing price momentum.
Valuation Impact: Hindustan Zinc justifies a premium on pure-play exposure, while Vedanta offers cheaper diversified optionality; sustainability of prices above US$3,000/t remains the key investor question.


Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is the world’s largest merchant zinc smelter, with growing exposure to high-margin rare metals (Sb/In/Bi).</li>
<li>Management is executing the “Troika Drive” strategy—expanding copper and nickel sulfate capacity while scaling strategic minerals and recycling.</li>
<li>Stock trades at ~5x 2027E earnings and ~4.7x EV/EBITDA, a clear discount to peers, key risks remain rare metal price volatility, zinc TC/RC recovery timing</li>
</ul>


Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is the world’s largest merchant zinc smelter, with growing exposure to high-margin rare metals (Sb/In/Bi).
Management is executing the “Troika Drive” strategy—expanding copper and nickel sulfate capacity while scaling strategic minerals and recycling.
Stock trades at ~5x 2027E earnings and ~4.7x EV/EBITDA, a clear discount to peers, key risks remain rare metal price volatility, zinc TC/RC recovery timing


Korea Zinc (010130 KS) – Rare Metals Rerating + TC/RC Recovery = Deep Value Setup

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Max Healthcare Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/max-healthcare-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35275:1" rel="noopener">Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There are 5 constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> leading to 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be global passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.</li>
</ul>



InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.


NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 based on current data. We see US$1.2bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 based on current data. We see US$1.2bn a side to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Reference Period About to End; Some Changes to Expectations

India

Hindustan Zinc Limited specializes in the exploration, mining and smelting of zinc, lead and other non-ferrous metals.  The Company's products include zinc ore, lead zinc concentrate, zinc metal, lead metal, cadmium metal, silver metal and sulfuric acid.

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Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Rahul Jain

Korea Zinc (010130 KS) – Rare Metals Rerating + TC/RC Recovery = Deep Value Setup

Korea Zinc is the world's largest zinc smelter with a focus on rare metals, executing a growth strategy while trading at a discount to peers.

Rahul Jain

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

The changes to the NIFTY/NIFTYJR indices are mostly on expected lines. The inclusion of HZ could be a surprise. There is positioning in the changes...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is INR 18.2bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Reference Period About to End; Some Changes to Expectations

These are our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY index family for the September 2025 index review. The reference period ended on 31st...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zinc Rally – Supply-Led Momentum Near US$3,000/T: Can It Last?

​Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Rahul Jain

Korea Zinc (010130 KS) – Rare Metals Rerating + TC/RC Recovery = Deep Value Setup

​Korea Zinc is the world's largest zinc smelter with a focus on rare metals, executing a growth strategy while trading at a discount to peers.

Rahul Jain

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

The changes to the NIFTY/NIFTYJR indices are mostly on expected lines. The inclusion of HZ could be a surprise. There is positioning in the changes...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is INR 18.2bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Reference Period About to End; Some Changes to Expectations

These are our final expectations for ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY index family for the September 2025 index review. The reference period ended on 31st...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Zinc prices surge due to supply constraints and China stimulus, impacting Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta valuations. Sustainability above US$3,000/t...

Korea Zinc is the world's largest zinc smelter with a focus on rare metals, executing a growth strategy while trading at a discount to peers.