Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hindustan Zinc’s Q4 FY25 PAT rose 47% YoY to Rs3,003 crore; EBITDA grew 32% YoY; zinc cost of production hit a 16-quarter low at $994/t.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance targets 1.12 Mt mined metal, 700–710 MT silver, and zinc cost of production between $1,025–1,050/t, slightly higher due to ore grade normalization.</li>
<li>HZL trades at ~21.5x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, at a premium to some global peers, with valuations sensitive to commodity prices, cost trends, and execution on expansion plans.</li>
</ul>


Hindustan Zinc’s Q4 FY25 PAT rose 47% YoY to Rs3,003 crore; EBITDA grew 32% YoY; zinc cost of production hit a 16-quarter low at $994/t.
FY26 guidance targets 1.12 Mt mined metal, 700–710 MT silver, and zinc cost of production between $1,025–1,050/t, slightly higher due to ore grade normalization.
HZL trades at ~21.5x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, at a premium to some global peers, with valuations sensitive to commodity prices, cost trends, and execution on expansion plans.


HZ IN: Operational Targets and Valuation Framework

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.</li>
<li>Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.</li>
<li>Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.</li>
</ul>



Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.


Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> is looking to raise US$760m from selling some stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Overall, while the deal would represent just 2.6% of the firm’s outstanding shares, the deal is a large one to digest at 41 days of the stock’s three month ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we take an early look at the deal, and comment on the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) is looking to raise US$760m from selling some stake in Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN).
Overall, while the deal would represent just 2.6% of the firm’s outstanding shares, the deal is a large one to digest at 41 days of the stock’s three month ADV.
In this note, we take an early look at the deal, and comment on the deal dynamics.


Hindustan Zinc OFS Early Look - Due for a Correction, Large Selling Pressure Looming

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Motilal Oswal's research report onHindustan Zinc In 2QFY25, revenue stood at INR83b (+22% YoY/+2% QoQ) against our estimate of INR78b.</li><li>The YoY growth was driven by better metal and silver volumes and zinc and silver prices, further supported by a strong dollar and marginally offset by lower lead prices.</li><li>EBITDA stood at INR41b (+31% YoY/+5% QoQ) against our estimate of INR39b.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Motilal Oswal's research report onHindustan Zinc In 2QFY25, revenue stood at INR83b (+22% YoY/+2% QoQ) against our estimate of INR78b.The YoY growth was driven by better metal and silver volumes and zinc and silver prices, further supported by a strong dollar and marginally offset by lower lead prices.EBITDA stood at INR41b (+31% YoY/+5% QoQ) against our estimate of INR39b.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Zinc - Performance in Line; Focus on Controlling CoP

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

India

Hindustan Zinc Limited specializes in the exploration, mining and smelting of zinc, lead and other non-ferrous metals.  The Company's products include zinc ore, lead zinc concentrate, zinc metal, lead metal, cadmium metal, silver metal and sulfuric acid.

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Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)

HZ IN: Operational Targets and Valuation Framework

Hindustan Zinc reports strong Q4 FY25 results with 47% rise in PAT, sets FY26 guidance with higher zinc production costs; stock trades at premium...

Rahul Jain