Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.</li>
<li>Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.


Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.</li>
</ul>


The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.


Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Swiggy delivered a revenue of INR39.9b in 3QFY25 (up 11% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR38.9b.</li><li>The food delivery (FD) business’s GOV grew 19.2% YoY, whereas the contribution margin was 7.4%, recording 80bp QoQ expansion.</li><li>FD’s adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV margin rose 90bp QoQ to 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV was INR39.0b (+88.1% YoY), which missed our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy delivered a revenue of INR39.9b in 3QFY25 (up 11% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR38.9b.The food delivery (FD) business’s GOV grew 19.2% YoY, whereas the contribution margin was 7.4%, recording 80bp QoQ expansion.FD’s adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV margin rose 90bp QoQ to 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV was INR39.0b (+88.1% YoY), which missed our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey findings.</li><li>Adj. EBITDA margin in FD improved ~90bps QoQ despite marginal decline in take rate driven by cost optimisation.</li><li>Pre-contribution expenses in FD were down 1.2% QoQ, which we believe implies 3-4% QoQ improvement in unit economics. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey findings.Adj. EBITDA margin in FD improved ~90bps QoQ despite marginal decline in take rate driven by cost optimisation.Pre-contribution expenses in FD were down 1.2% QoQ, which we believe implies 3-4% QoQ improvement in unit economics. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy - Gains Share in Food Delivery; QC Losses Grow Higher than Expected

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back</li><li>Overall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ respectively</li><li>In FD, MTU addition/GOV growth was largely in line with expectations (up 19% YoY), with stable take rates</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it backOverall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ respectivelyIn FD, MTU addition/GOV growth was largely in line with expectations (up 19% YoY), with stable take ratesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy (3QFY25): Quick Commerce Burn Deepens. Maintain REDUCE

India

Swiggy Limited operates an online easy-to-use food ordering application. The Company offers platform that allows users to browse, select, order, and pay for food, grocery, and household items delivered to their doorstep through on-demand delivery partner network. Swiggy serves customers in India.

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Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

There is a US$7.6bn lock-up expiry in Swiggy on 12 May - 80% of that is PE/VC, so expect selling. The stock could remain under pressure but PE/VC...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

Swiggy's IPO lock-up expiries in 2025 are expected to increase its free float and lead to its addition to global indices in May and June.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

Overall, Swiggy reported a net loss of INR8b, marking a 39% YoY increase. For 4QFY25, we expect revenue/adj. EBITDA loss to increase 7.0%/14.5% QoQ.

Motilal Oswal

Swiggy (3QFY25): Quick Commerce Burn Deepens. Maintain REDUCE

Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back. Overall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ...

HDFC Securities

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

There is a US$7.6bn lock-up expiry in Swiggy on 12 May - 80% of that is PE/VC, so expect selling. The stock could remain under pressure but PE/VC...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

​Swiggy's IPO lock-up expiries in 2025 are expected to increase its free float and lead to its addition to global indices in May and June.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

Overall, Swiggy reported a net loss of INR8b, marking a 39% YoY increase. For 4QFY25, we expect revenue/adj. EBITDA loss to increase 7.0%/14.5% QoQ.

Motilal Oswal

Swiggy - Gains Share in Food Delivery; QC Losses Grow Higher than Expected

In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey...

ICICI Securities Limited

Swiggy (3QFY25): Quick Commerce Burn Deepens. Maintain REDUCE

Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back. Overall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ...

HDFC Securities

Swiggy's IPO lock-up expiries in 2025 are expected to increase its free float and lead to its addition to global indices in May and June.