New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Development pipeline goes to the next level: the headline sector generation development pipeline increased +8.2TWh (+38%) in February 2023, mainly due to MEL revealing a big increase in early stage options</li><li>1H23 results deliver strong earnings growth as expected, dividend growth more muted</li><li>Operating conditions continue to favour North Island hydro generators: February 2023 North Island hydro generation was +47% above average, a continuation of recent trends</li></ul>

Development pipeline goes to the next level: the headline sector generation development pipeline increased +8.2TWh (+38%) in February 2023, mainly due to MEL revealing a big increase in early stage options1H23 results deliver strong earnings growth as expected, dividend growth more mutedOperating conditions continue to favour North Island hydro generators: February 2023 North Island hydro generation was +47% above average, a continuation of recent trends

Power Points: Developing Overbuild Risk — March 2023

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GNE delivers record half year result as expected: A key benefit of record hydro generation is it reduces the cost of generation</li><li>Guidance upgrade driven by more hydro generation, but increased capex takes the gloss off</li><li>Kupe development decision interesting: Also taking the gloss off the result was Kupe well development costs coming in +NZ$25m higher than expected at NZ$75m</li></ul>

GNE delivers record half year result as expected: A key benefit of record hydro generation is it reduces the cost of generationGuidance upgrade driven by more hydro generation, but increased capex takes the gloss offKupe development decision interesting: Also taking the gloss off the result was Kupe well development costs coming in +NZ$25m higher than expected at NZ$75m

Genesis Energy: Record Setting Half — 1H23 Result

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> has disclosed a revised non-binding proposal from Brookfield/EIG. The headline price has been lowered by -1.1% from A$9.00 to A$8.90 per share.</li>
<li>Under the revised proposal, shareholders’ first 100,000 shares get A$8.90. Beyond that ownership, the offer is A$4.334 plus US$3.194 per share (currently worth A$8.99 per share). </li>
<li>While the recut introduces FX rate risk, the average implied value is A$9.01 since 10 November. Both the offeror and the Board seem keen to get a binding offer.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) has disclosed a revised non-binding proposal from Brookfield/EIG. The headline price has been lowered by -1.1% from A$9.00 to A$8.90 per share.
Under the revised proposal, shareholders’ first 100,000 shares get A$8.90. Beyond that ownership, the offer is A$4.334 plus US$3.194 per share (currently worth A$8.99 per share). 
While the recut introduces FX rate risk, the average implied value is A$9.01 since 10 November. Both the offeror and the Board seem keen to get a binding offer.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Recut Deal Is a Win-Win

<ul><li>North Island generators to deliver the growth: We anticipate most generator/retailers will lift 1H23 EBITDAF earnings</li><li>Outlook commentary should be positive from GNE and MCY, less so from CEN</li><li>Key themes likely to be development pipelines, inflation, and NZAS</li></ul>

North Island generators to deliver the growth: We anticipate most generator/retailers will lift 1H23 EBITDAF earningsOutlook commentary should be positive from GNE and MCY, less so from CENKey themes likely to be development pipelines, inflation, and NZAS

Electricity Sector: NI Hydro Powers 1H23 Sector Earnings

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has benefitted from record 1H hydro generation, breaking 2TWh for the first time, such that we anticipate record 1H EBITDAF of NZ$312m</li><li>2Q23 was as good as 1Q23 from a hydro perspective and so the lack of a guidance upgrade is disappointing</li><li>The higher opex has also reduced our target price -5cps (-1.9%) to NZ$2.65</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has benefitted from record 1H hydro generation, breaking 2TWh for the first time, such that we anticipate record 1H EBITDAF of NZ$312m2Q23 was as good as 1Q23 from a hydro perspective and so the lack of a guidance upgrade is disappointingThe higher opex has also reduced our target price -5cps (-1.9%) to NZ$2.65

Genesis Energy: Record Hydro Not Enough — 2Q23 Op Stats

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

Vector Limited is an energy infrastructure company in New Zealand that provides electricity and gas transmission and distribution along with metering.  The Company is also a wholesaler of LPG and natural gas.  Vector also delivers broadband voice and data communications in the Auckland and Wellington regions.

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

NZ Windfarms Ltd. is a long term owner and operator of a renewable generation asset, with its principal revenue coming from the sale of sustainably generated electricity. The Company's core business activity is the operation and ownership of its wind farm in New Zealand.

Just Water International Limited provides drinking water and water related services to companies and government organizations throughout New Zealand.  The Company supplies and delivers bottled water and water coolers, operates processing plants and water bottling plants.

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

Hokkaido Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Hokkaido area. The Company generates electricity by using hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power alongside coal and oil. Hokkaido Electric Power also constructs and maintains electrical power facilities. Additionally, the Company sells electrical equipment.

Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy & Electric Power Co., Ltd. generates and distributes hydroelectric power. The Company also manufactures water conservation products as well as provides installation and advertising services.

Energiedienst Holding AG produces and supplies electricity throughout Switzerland and Germany.  The Company also imports electrical power from other European countries. Energiedienst produces electricity from hydroelectric power stations exclusively.

Romande Energie Holding SA distributes electricity in the canton of Vaud. The Company also provides repair and other electrical services to its customers. CVE and Societe Romanded' Electricite (SRE) constitute Romande Energie which is part of the CVE-Romande Energie Group.

India Grid Trust operates as an infrastructure investment trust. The Company invests, designs, finances, constructs, and maintains power transmission projects. India Grid Trust serves customers in India.

Hokuriku Electric Power Company generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Hokuriku area including Fukui, Ishikawa, and Toyama prefectures.  The Company uses hydroelectric and nuclear power sources.

Shikoku Electric Power Company Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Shikoku region which includes Kagawa, Kouchi, Tokushima, and Ehime prefectures.  The Company uses nuclear, thermal, internal combustion, and hydraulic power sources.

Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte S.A. distributes and sells electricity in the north-eastern region of greater Buenos Aires.

Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA generates, transmits, transforms and distributes electrical energy throughout the entire Brazilian State of Bahia.  The Company provides electric services to 413 municipalities in Bahia.

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. generates, distributes, and transmits electricity. The Company also builds highways, roads, bridges, rapid transit systems, airports, and other projects. Reliance Infrastructure is a member of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group.

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Power Points: Developing Overbuild Risk — March 2023

February 2023 was again characterised by high North Island hydro generation, which is good news for Genesis Energy (GNE) and Mercury (MCY), but the...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy: Record Setting Half — 1H23 Result

Genesis Energy (GNE) delivered a record breaking half year result, as expected, with 1H23 EBITDAF of NZ$298m, +30% better than the previous record...

Forsyth Barr

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Recut Deal Is a Win-Win

The revised terms imply a modest deal cut and acceptable FX rate risk. Expect a binding offer soon. Regulatory risks will be the key overhang.

Arun George

Electricity Sector: NI Hydro Powers 1H23 Sector Earnings

1H23 is all about record North Island hydro generation, powering both Genesis Energy (GNE) and Mercury (MCY) to record half year results; Combined,...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy: Record Hydro Not Enough — 2Q23 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) has benefitted from record 1H hydro generation, breaking 2TWh for the first time, such that we anticipate record 1H EBITDAF of...

Forsyth Barr

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