IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.</li>
<li>If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.</li>
<li>The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.</li><li>This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.</li><li>We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. </li></ul>

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. 

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

<ul><li>January 2024 saw a good top-up of hydro lakes, easing near-term hydro generation concerns, strong electricity demand growth and EV sales collapsing to pre-Clean Car Discount levels.</li><li>Share price performance was subdued, with two stocks outperforming and three underperforming.</li><li>We continue to view the sector as expensive with the Electricity Authority’s (EA) generation development survey indicating more solar projects are being built (or are about to be built) than has been publicly announced, suggesting a short-term overbuild risk is real.</li></ul>

January 2024 saw a good top-up of hydro lakes, easing near-term hydro generation concerns, strong electricity demand growth and EV sales collapsing to pre-Clean Car Discount levels.Share price performance was subdued, with two stocks outperforming and three underperforming.We continue to view the sector as expensive with the Electricity Authority’s (EA) generation development survey indicating more solar projects are being built (or are about to be built) than has been publicly announced, suggesting a short-term overbuild risk is real.

Power Points - Clean Car Discount Cuts Sales—February 2024

<ul><li>We expect combined 1H24 EBITDAF to be slightly down on 1H23, but the prior period benefitted from record-high North Island hydro generation.</li><li>That has meant sector cost of generation has increased, particularly impacting Genesis Energy (GNE). T</li><li>he standout performer will be Contact Energy (CEN) as it reports record half year EBITDAF, however, its outlook for the remainder of 2H24 is likely to be the most subdued due to the effects of its Tauhara geothermal project not coming on line as expected. </li></ul>

We expect combined 1H24 EBITDAF to be slightly down on 1H23, but the prior period benefitted from record-high North Island hydro generation.That has meant sector cost of generation has increased, particularly impacting Genesis Energy (GNE). The standout performer will be Contact Energy (CEN) as it reports record half year EBITDAF, however, its outlook for the remainder of 2H24 is likely to be the most subdued due to the effects of its Tauhara geothermal project not coming on line as expected. 

Electricity Sector - Earnings Growth Stalls — 1H24 Sector Preview

<ul><li>December 2023 saw hydro lake levels fall, wholesale electricity prices rise, and more thermal generation being used; the market will be keen to avoid a dry January.</li><li>Whilst it is too early to be overly concerned, NIWA’s climate outlook points to below average river flows being likely to the end of March 2024.</li><li>We view Genesis Energy (GNE) as the main beneficiary if conditions remain dry, with Contact Energy (CEN) the most exposed. </li></ul>

December 2023 saw hydro lake levels fall, wholesale electricity prices rise, and more thermal generation being used; the market will be keen to avoid a dry January.Whilst it is too early to be overly concerned, NIWA’s climate outlook points to below average river flows being likely to the end of March 2024.We view Genesis Energy (GNE) as the main beneficiary if conditions remain dry, with Contact Energy (CEN) the most exposed. 

Power Points - Dry January Not What the Sector Wants — January 2024

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

The NBIO is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip’s acceptance. The off-market takeover is the floor price, as the minimum...

Arun George

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down. This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Clean Car Discount Cuts Sales—February 2024

January 2024 saw a good top-up of hydro lakes, easing near-term hydro generation concerns, strong electricity demand growth and EV sales collapsing...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Earnings Growth Stalls — 1H24 Sector Preview

We expect combined 1H24 EBITDAF to be slightly down on 1H23, but the prior period benefitted from record-high North Island hydro generation.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Dry January Not What the Sector Wants — January 2024

December 2023 saw hydro lake levels fall, wholesale electricity prices rise, and more thermal generation being used; the market will be keen to...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)