New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has confirmed the expected FY25 earnings decline due to the failure of the KS-9 production well, and provided an indication of the impact on reserves.</li><li>Whilst FY25 earnings are better than expected, reserves are going to be lower than previously forecast.</li><li>With these factors largely offsetting themselves, our target price and OUTPERFORM rating are unchanged. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has confirmed the expected FY25 earnings decline due to the failure of the KS-9 production well, and provided an indication of the impact on reserves.Whilst FY25 earnings are better than expected, reserves are going to be lower than previously forecast.With these factors largely offsetting themselves, our target price and OUTPERFORM rating are unchanged. 

Genesis Energy - Confirming the Level of Kupe Pain

<ul>
<li>Genesis Energy's (GNE) worst Kupe fears have been realised, with the KS-9 well proving to be a dud.</li>
<li>Production issues have not been resolved and so future Kupe production and earnings will be correspondingly lower than previously expected.</li>
<li>In addition to the earnings impact on Kupe, there is an indirect impact on the Energy business, with less gas available to run its gas-fired Unit 5 plant.</li>
</ul>


Genesis Energy's (GNE) worst Kupe fears have been realised, with the KS-9 well proving to be a dud.
Production issues have not been resolved and so future Kupe production and earnings will be correspondingly lower than previously expected.
In addition to the earnings impact on Kupe, there is an indirect impact on the Energy business, with less gas available to run its gas-fired Unit 5 plant.


Genesis Energy - Well That's No Good; Kupe Well Unproductive

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.</li><li>Retail volume and price growth continue to be positive, particularly in electricity.</li><li>The Kupe KS-9 well drilled in 2Q24 has not lifted production as expected, with final well commissioning pushed back a further month to the end of May. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.Retail volume and price growth continue to be positive, particularly in electricity.The Kupe KS-9 well drilled in 2Q24 has not lifted production as expected, with final well commissioning pushed back a further month to the end of May. 

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.</li><li>Lower hydro generation volumes, lower Kupe production volumes, and the Unit 5 outage were all challenges GNE had to overcome.</li><li>A positive aspect of the result was no further deterioration in opex. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.Lower hydro generation volumes, lower Kupe production volumes, and the Unit 5 outage were all challenges GNE had to overcome.A positive aspect of the result was no further deterioration in opex. 

Genesis Energy - It's Darkest Before Dawn — 1H24 Result

<ul><li>Genesis Energy's (GNE) 2Q/1H24 operating performance saw near average hydro generation, strong retail netback growth and a big decline in Kupe volumes ahead of the new well being brought into production.</li><li>Forecasts are little changed as a result but we lift our target price +10cps (+3.8%) to NZ$2.70, with lower interest rates lifting our multiple and dividend yield based valuation metrics.</li><li>GNE remains our preferred electricity exposure. OUTPERFORM. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy's (GNE) 2Q/1H24 operating performance saw near average hydro generation, strong retail netback growth and a big decline in Kupe volumes ahead of the new well being brought into production.Forecasts are little changed as a result but we lift our target price +10cps (+3.8%) to NZ$2.70, with lower interest rates lifting our multiple and dividend yield based valuation metrics.GNE remains our preferred electricity exposure. OUTPERFORM. 

Genesis Energy - Operating on Gas Again — 2Q24 Op Stats External Inbox Updates

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy - Confirming the Level of Kupe Pain

Genesis Energy (GNE) has confirmed the expected FY25 earnings decline due to the failure of the KS-9 production well, and provided an indication of...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Well That's No Good; Kupe Well Unproductive

Our target price is down -15cps (-4.9%) to NZ$2.90, but since February 2024 the market has more than priced in reduced Kupe production volumes....

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Retail Performing Well

Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - It's Darkest Before Dawn — 1H24 Result

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Operating on Gas Again — 2Q24 Op Stats External Inbox Updates

Genesis Energy's (GNE) 2Q/1H24 operating performance saw near average hydro generation, strong retail netback growth and a big decline in Kupe volumes

Forsyth Barr

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