New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>An increasingly uncertain gas outlook has led us to downgrade our Genesis Energy (GNE) rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>Higher gas costs and gas generation portfolio restrictions has resulted in a lower and more uncertain earnings forecast from FY26 onwards.</li><li>In addition, despite GNE now operating its third Rankine unit, it does not appear to be in the position to take advantage of the situation as much as previously thought. </li></ul>

An increasingly uncertain gas outlook has led us to downgrade our Genesis Energy (GNE) rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.Higher gas costs and gas generation portfolio restrictions has resulted in a lower and more uncertain earnings forecast from FY26 onwards.In addition, despite GNE now operating its third Rankine unit, it does not appear to be in the position to take advantage of the situation as much as previously thought. 

Genesis Energy - Costs Cut Outlook and Rating - 4Q24 Op Stats

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has confirmed the expected FY25 earnings decline due to the failure of the KS-9 production well, and provided an indication of the impact on reserves.</li><li>Whilst FY25 earnings are better than expected, reserves are going to be lower than previously forecast.</li><li>With these factors largely offsetting themselves, our target price and OUTPERFORM rating are unchanged. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has confirmed the expected FY25 earnings decline due to the failure of the KS-9 production well, and provided an indication of the impact on reserves.Whilst FY25 earnings are better than expected, reserves are going to be lower than previously forecast.With these factors largely offsetting themselves, our target price and OUTPERFORM rating are unchanged. 

Genesis Energy - Confirming the Level of Kupe Pain

<ul>
<li>Genesis Energy's (GNE) worst Kupe fears have been realised, with the KS-9 well proving to be a dud.</li>
<li>Production issues have not been resolved and so future Kupe production and earnings will be correspondingly lower than previously expected.</li>
<li>In addition to the earnings impact on Kupe, there is an indirect impact on the Energy business, with less gas available to run its gas-fired Unit 5 plant.</li>
</ul>


Genesis Energy's (GNE) worst Kupe fears have been realised, with the KS-9 well proving to be a dud.
Production issues have not been resolved and so future Kupe production and earnings will be correspondingly lower than previously expected.
In addition to the earnings impact on Kupe, there is an indirect impact on the Energy business, with less gas available to run its gas-fired Unit 5 plant.


Genesis Energy - Well That's No Good; Kupe Well Unproductive

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.</li><li>Retail volume and price growth continue to be positive, particularly in electricity.</li><li>The Kupe KS-9 well drilled in 2Q24 has not lifted production as expected, with final well commissioning pushed back a further month to the end of May. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.Retail volume and price growth continue to be positive, particularly in electricity.The Kupe KS-9 well drilled in 2Q24 has not lifted production as expected, with final well commissioning pushed back a further month to the end of May. 

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.</li><li>Lower hydro generation volumes, lower Kupe production volumes, and the Unit 5 outage were all challenges GNE had to overcome.</li><li>A positive aspect of the result was no further deterioration in opex. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.Lower hydro generation volumes, lower Kupe production volumes, and the Unit 5 outage were all challenges GNE had to overcome.A positive aspect of the result was no further deterioration in opex. 

Genesis Energy - It's Darkest Before Dawn — 1H24 Result

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

Vector Limited is an energy infrastructure company in New Zealand that provides electricity and gas transmission and distribution along with metering.  The Company is also a wholesaler of LPG and natural gas.  Vector also delivers broadband voice and data communications in the Auckland and Wellington regions.

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

NZ Windfarms Ltd. is a long term owner and operator of a renewable generation asset, with its principal revenue coming from the sale of sustainably generated electricity. The Company's core business activity is the operation and ownership of its wind farm in New Zealand.

Just Water International Limited provides drinking water and water related services to companies and government organizations throughout New Zealand.  The Company supplies and delivers bottled water and water coolers, operates processing plants and water bottling plants.

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

Hokkaido Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Hokkaido area. The Company generates electricity by using hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power alongside coal and oil. Hokkaido Electric Power also constructs and maintains electrical power facilities. Additionally, the Company sells electrical equipment.

Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy & Electric Power Co., Ltd. generates and distributes hydroelectric power. The Company also manufactures water conservation products as well as provides installation and advertising services.

Energiedienst Holding AG produces and supplies electricity throughout Switzerland and Germany.  The Company also imports electrical power from other European countries. Energiedienst produces electricity from hydroelectric power stations exclusively.

Romande Energie Holding SA distributes electricity in the canton of Vaud. The Company also provides repair and other electrical services to its customers. CVE and Societe Romanded' Electricite (SRE) constitute Romande Energie which is part of the CVE-Romande Energie Group.

India Grid Trust operates as an infrastructure investment trust. The Company invests, designs, finances, constructs, and maintains power transmission projects. India Grid Trust serves customers in India.

Hokuriku Electric Power Company generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Hokuriku area including Fukui, Ishikawa, and Toyama prefectures.  The Company uses hydroelectric and nuclear power sources.

Shikoku Electric Power Company Incorporated generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Shikoku region which includes Kagawa, Kouchi, Tokushima, and Ehime prefectures.  The Company uses nuclear, thermal, internal combustion, and hydraulic power sources.

Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte S.A. distributes and sells electricity in the north-eastern region of greater Buenos Aires.

Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA generates, transmits, transforms and distributes electrical energy throughout the entire Brazilian State of Bahia.  The Company provides electric services to 413 municipalities in Bahia.

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. generates, distributes, and transmits electricity. The Company also builds highways, roads, bridges, rapid transit systems, airports, and other projects. Reliance Infrastructure is a member of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group.

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy - Costs Cut Outlook and Rating - 4Q24 Op Stats

An increasingly uncertain gas outlook has led us to downgrade our Genesis Energy (GNE) rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Confirming the Level of Kupe Pain

Genesis Energy (GNE) has confirmed the expected FY25 earnings decline due to the failure of the KS-9 production well, and provided an indication of...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Well That's No Good; Kupe Well Unproductive

Our target price is down -15cps (-4.9%) to NZ$2.90, but since February 2024 the market has more than priced in reduced Kupe production volumes....

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Retail Performing Well

Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - It's Darkest Before Dawn — 1H24 Result

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)