Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In the near-term, we see room for the Turkish lira to appreciate as it catches up with its EM peers following the aggressive rate hike by the central bank, taking the real rate to a high positive level.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In the near-term, we see room for the Turkish lira to appreciate as it catches up with its EM peers following the aggressive rate hike by the central bank, taking the real rate to a high positive level.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

We show that the dollar remains the primary driver of EM FX despite the idiosyncratic moves in Turkey and Brazil today on the back of rate hikes.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

We show that the dollar remains the primary driver of EM FX despite the idiosyncratic moves in Turkey and Brazil today on the back of rate hikes.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: As Goes the Dollar, so Goes EM FX

In this note, we discuss the relationship between a currency's carry with its volatility, and use it to identify dislocations.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the relationship between a currency's carry with its volatility, and use it to identify dislocations.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Is Carry Compensating for Volatility?

The Peruvian sol (PEN) is standing out as an underperformer relative to other EM currencies,. However, we would look for an entry point closer to the elections as it may get cheaper.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

The Peruvian sol (PEN) is standing out as an underperformer relative to other EM currencies,. However, we would look for an entry point closer to the elections as it may get cheaper.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Peruvian Sol Cheapens Further Ahead of the Elections

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Households have accumulated £150bn of excess savings during Covid, fuelling bullish narratives. Overall, households are not declaring an intent to spend this windfall, though, with many experiencing severe pain and a net balance planning to cut back.</li>
<li>Savings are accumulating among those least likely to spend it. Almost half plan to hold them, with about a third investing it, fuelling the housing boom, while only 7% intend to spend the gain. We remain relatively gloomy on GDP growth, especially in H2 2021.</li>
</ul>


Households have accumulated £150bn of excess savings during Covid, fuelling bullish narratives. Overall, households are not declaring an intent to spend this windfall, though, with many experiencing severe pain and a net balance planning to cut back.
Savings are accumulating among those least likely to spend it. Almost half plan to hold them, with about a third investing it, fuelling the housing boom, while only 7% intend to spend the gain. We remain relatively gloomy on GDP growth, especially in H2 2021.


United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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FX Dashboard: Lira Re-Engages with EM

In the near-term, we see room for the Turkish lira to appreciate as it catches up with its EM peers following the aggressive rate hike by the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: As Goes the Dollar, so Goes EM FX

We show that the dollar remains the primary driver of EM FX despite the idiosyncratic moves in Turkey and Brazil today on the back of rate hikes.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Is Carry Compensating for Volatility?

In this note, we discuss the relationship between a currency's carry with its volatility, and use it to identify dislocations.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Peruvian Sol Cheapens Further Ahead of the Elections

The Peruvian sol (PEN) is standing out as an underperformer relative to other EM currencies,. However, we would look for an entry point closer to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

UK: Savings Are Not for Splurging

Almost half of savers plan to hold gains, with about a third investing it, fuelling the housing boom, while only 7% intend to spend the gain. We...

Phil Rush

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