External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The headline changes in USD positioning is the latest week’s Commitments of Traders Report are relatively limited.</li><li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to USD8.48bn.</li><li>This is still close to the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The headline changes in USD positioning is the latest week’s Commitments of Traders Report are relatively limited.Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to USD8.48bn.This is still close to the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Consolidates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.</li><li>Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.</li><li>European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies.</li><li>We find the following to be decent risk/rewards:USD-EUR spreads can widen further due to diverging inflation outlooks.</li><li>We see value in March-2024 spreads.</li></ul>

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies.We find the following to be decent risk/rewards:USD-EUR spreads can widen further due to diverging inflation outlooks.We see value in March-2024 spreads.

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

<ul><li>We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.</li><li>We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.</li><li>Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.</li></ul>

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

<ul><li>A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend</li><li>Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demand</li><li>Nat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets</li></ul>

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekendOil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demandNat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Consolidates

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.

Scotiabank

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies. We find the following to...

Steno Research

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend. Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some...

Steno Research

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