Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.</li>
<li>Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.</li>
<li>A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.</li>
</ul>


The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.
Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.
A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.</li><li>Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.</li></ul>

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble.</li><li>The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the day following the BoJ policy decision earlier.</li><li>Markets are disappointed that the BoJ made only a modest change to its policy stance, announcing that it would take a more flexible approach to its YCC objective and would treat the 1% level for 10Y yields as a “reference point ” from now on.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble.The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the day following the BoJ policy decision earlier.Markets are disappointed that the BoJ made only a modest change to its policy stance, announcing that it would take a more flexible approach to its YCC objective and would treat the 1% level for 10Y yields as a “reference point ” from now on.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Untangling USD Drivers into Year-End

<ul>
<li>The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed.</li>
<li>The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no change in policy and a statement (14ET) that largely reflects recent comments from senior Fed officials that they are in position to “proceed carefully ” on monetary policy for now.</li>
<li>That effectively means an extended hold, with more tightening not ruled out. Chairman Powell’s press conference starts around 14.30ET.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed.
The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no change in policy and a statement (14ET) that largely reflects recent comments from senior Fed officials that they are in position to “proceed carefully ” on monetary policy for now.
That effectively means an extended hold, with more tightening not ruled out. Chairman Powell’s press conference starts around 14.30ET.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of the FOMC, JPY Outperforms

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.</li><li>We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.</li><li>Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.

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BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...

Phil Rush

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

FX Snapshot - Untangling USD Drivers into Year-End

The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble. The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of the FOMC, JPY Outperforms

The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed. The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no...

Scotiabank

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

​The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...

Phil Rush

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

FX Snapshot - Untangling USD Drivers into Year-End

The USD is mixed to weaker as equity markets push higher and US yields tumble. The glaring exception is the JPY which is down more than 1% on the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of the FOMC, JPY Outperforms

The USD is firm against most of the majors as investor attention turns to the Fed. The FOMC decision is expected to be a straightforward one —no...

Scotiabank

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the...

Steno Research

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...