Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

- The UK’s manufacturing rebounded by 2.9 points to a new high of 57.3, far above all forecasts in the consensus. However, this recovery was just the UK catching back up with its regional trade partners so should have been expected sooner or later. The sector’s supply chain is global, and it’s doing well globally.After three consecutive declines, the headline UK manufacturing PMI balance surged in April to more than recover all lost ground. At 57.3, this survey suggests the sector is growing at…

- The UK’s manufacturing rebounded by 2.9 points to a new high of 57.3, far above all forecasts in the consensus. However, this recovery was just the UK catching back up with its regional trade partners so should have been expected sooner or later. The sector’s supply chain is global, and it’s doing well globally.After three consecutive declines, the headline UK manufacturing PMI balance surged in April to more than recover all lost ground. At 57.3, this survey suggests the sector is growing at…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The Australian government budget next Tuesday is set to announce significant debt-financed infrastructure spending.  This contrasts with the Trump administration that touted big spending on infrastructure spending and tax reform, but then placed more emphasis on border control, immigration, health care and trade policy.  Its more pro-growth tax and infrastructure policies face an uphill battle in Congress.  Australian government budget policy is also likely to appear supportive for the housing market.  The RBA has already shown its support for infrastructure spending and is likely to sound cautiously optimistic and leave policy neutral.  The NZ labour data may be crucial for the RBNZ policy outlook.  Any evidence that tightening labour market conditions are starting to lift wage growth will put considerable pressure on the RBNZ to lift its sanguine inflation outlook after its recent stronger than expected Q1 CPI report.  The bounce in AUD and NZD on Monday from multi-month lows is at risk of extending.  EUR has baulked at the mid-1.09s in the last week, but economic momentum continues to rise relative to other major economies and political risk is easing.  UK economic momentum, on the other hand, may be ebbing, and resurgence in the GBP may stall as the EU signals it will play hardball in Brexit negotiations.

The Australian government budget next Tuesday is set to announce significant debt-financed infrastructure spending.  This contrasts with the Trump administration that touted big spending on infrastructure spending and tax reform, but then placed more emphasis on border control, immigration, health care and trade policy.  Its more pro-growth tax and infrastructure policies face an uphill battle in Congress.  Australian government budget policy is also likely to appear supportive for the housing market.  The RBA has already shown its support for infrastructure spending and is likely to sound cautiously optimistic and leave policy neutral.  The NZ labour data may be crucial for the RBNZ policy outlook.  Any evidence that tightening labour market conditions are starting to lift wage growth will put considerable pressure on the RBNZ to lift its sanguine inflation outlook after its recent stronger than expected Q1 CPI report.  The bounce in AUD and NZD on Monday from multi-month lows is at risk of extending.  EUR has baulked at the mid-1.09s in the last week, but economic momentum continues to rise relative to other major economies and political risk is easing.  UK economic momentum, on the other hand, may be ebbing, and resurgence in the GBP may stall as the EU signals it will play hardball in Brexit negotiations.

<ul><li>Ahead of the EU's formal Brexit-negotiating guidelines being agreed on 29 April, it is worth remembering the UK's position. The UK’s 12 objectives for Brexit are already for the UK to leave the single market and the substantive aspects of the customs union.</li><li>Ending the ECJ’s jurisdiction over UK law is difficult alongside another objective to have elements of the single market in certain areas. Most difficult of all is the aim to conclude it all in 2yrs. Having bespoke arrangements for specific areas will be complicated to negotiate, so a transitional state may gain further importance.</li><li>Targeting a ‘hard’ Brexit has not harmed Sterling since the announcement, despite this being what traders had feared. Parliament’s promised vote should not provide much comfort, although the general election probably provides more room to make some softer concessions, including around a transitionary deal.</li></ul>

Ahead of the EU's formal Brexit-negotiating guidelines being agreed on 29 April, it is worth remembering the UK's position. The UK’s 12 objectives for Brexit are already for the UK to leave the single market and the substantive aspects of the customs union.Ending the ECJ’s jurisdiction over UK law is difficult alongside another objective to have elements of the single market in certain areas. Most difficult of all is the aim to conclude it all in 2yrs. Having bespoke arrangements for specific areas will be complicated to negotiate, so a transitional state may gain further importance.Targeting a ‘hard’ Brexit has not harmed Sterling since the announcement, despite this being what traders had feared. Parliament’s promised vote should not provide much comfort, although the general election probably provides more room to make some softer concessions, including around a transitionary deal.

Brexit: Hard Objectives to Square with Sterling

<ul>
<li>The ONS’s first estimate of Q1 GDP growth revealed a surprisingly large slowdown to 0.3% q-o-q. That’s 0.1pp below the consensus expectation (and mine).</li>
<li>Downside news was fairly broad based, with services growth not showing any positive payback in February and IP implied to have fallen again in March.</li>
<li>
With growth at half the pace that the BoE had pencilled in at its last meeting (i.e. 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the February Inflation Report), the hawkish pressures are dissipating. The May IR looks…</li>
</ul>


The ONS’s first estimate of Q1 GDP growth revealed a surprisingly large slowdown to 0.3% q-o-q. That’s 0.1pp below the consensus expectation (and mine).
Downside news was fairly broad based, with services growth not showing any positive payback in February and IP implied to have fallen again in March.

With growth at half the pace that the BoE had pencilled in at its last meeting (i.e. 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the February Inflation Report), the hawkish pressures are dissipating. The May IR looks…


This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data. Activity: Signs of slowdown are mounting from a remarkably resilient base. Imbalances leave large risks. Inflation: GBP is dominating inflation dynamics, CPI inflation looks set to peak at 3.2%. BoE: Hawkish pressure is mounting, with a hike probably next, but not until August-19. Politics: Withdrawal negotiations follow the election, but a new deal comes later with disorderly risks.

This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.  Activity: Signs of slowdown are mounting from a remarkably resilient base. Imbalances leave large risks.  Inflation: GBP is dominating inflation dynamics, CPI inflation looks set to peak at 3.2%.  BoE: Hawkish pressure is mounting, with a hike probably next, but not until August-19.  Politics: Withdrawal negotiations follow the election, but a new deal comes later with disorderly risks.

UK Wrap: Slowing Through an Election to Hard Brexit

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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FLASH: UK Manufacturing Catches up Again

- The UK’s manufacturing rebounded by 2.9 points to a new high of 57.3, far above all forecasts in the consensus. However, this recovery was just...

Phil Rush

Australia to Deliver on Infrastructure

The Australian government budget next Tuesday is set to announce significant debt-financed infrastructure spending. This contrasts with the Trump...

Greg Gibbs

Brexit: Hard Objectives to Square with Sterling

Ahead of the EU's formal Brexit-negotiating guidelines being agreed on 29 April, it is worth remembering the UK's position. The UK’s 12 objectives...

Phil Rush

UK Growth Slows to Half the BoE Forecast

The ONS’s first estimate of Q1 GDP growth revealed a surprisingly large slowdown to 0.3% q-o-q. That’s 0.1pp below the consensus expectation (and...

Phil Rush

UK Wrap: Slowing Through an Election to Hard Brexit

This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.Activity: Signs of...

Phil Rush

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