Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The government’s Brexit timeline appears to be inherited from Brussels, where Brexit is still considered a two-stage process. Article 50 is more about a Withdrawal Treaty than what is next, leaving a role for a transitional period.</li><li>Disentangling from the EU requires tying off financial commitments to the EU and what rights citizens and businesses enjoy. The Council leads, the Commission deals with details and the Parliament provides approval.</li><li>Financial commitments to the EU Budget cannot be ruled out in ‘solidarity’ and certainly not in support for EU programmes. Exit from the EIB can be done in a few ways. All contingent liabilities should end, without much contention.</li><li>Rights of establishment are legally protected until the treaty is terminated unless negotiated otherwise. Migrants’ legal position is particularly problematic, amid different national experiences of flows and demographics with many grey areas.</li></ul>

The government’s Brexit timeline appears to be inherited from Brussels, where Brexit is still considered a two-stage process. Article 50 is more about a Withdrawal Treaty than what is next, leaving a role for a transitional period.Disentangling from the EU requires tying off financial commitments to the EU and what rights citizens and businesses enjoy. The Council leads, the Commission deals with details and the Parliament provides approval.Financial commitments to the EU Budget cannot be ruled out in ‘solidarity’ and certainly not in support for EU programmes. Exit from the EIB can be done in a few ways. All contingent liabilities should end, without much contention.Rights of establishment are legally protected until the treaty is terminated unless negotiated otherwise. Migrants’ legal position is particularly problematic, amid different national experiences of flows and demographics with many grey areas.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 19 April 2017Euro and Sterling waves or ripples above DXY 99To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/o3hObg1H" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/o3hObg1H&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1492826840863000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqXnyjxdVWFuxaMFhRuOEGK2qz8A">https://www.screencast.com/t/o3hObg1H</a> 14:49 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/715/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1492740802" data-smartkarma-image-id="24715"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>DXY – DXY recent update outlined risk of a re-test on the sub 100 zone given the fade back below 100.60 and that is what unfolded. Now comes the key test of DXY 99 amid softening yields. Now, do we hold DXY 99 or break it. Fresh structures in Sterling and the Euro increase odds of breaking DXY 99 which is the line in the…

Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 19 April 2017Euro and Sterling waves or ripples above DXY 99To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/o3hObg1H 14:49 min.FX webcastDXY – DXY recent update outlined risk of a re-test on the sub 100 zone given the fade back below 100.60 and that is what unfolded. Now comes the key test of DXY 99 amid softening yields. Now, do we hold DXY 99 or break it. Fresh structures in Sterling and the Euro increase odds of breaking DXY 99 which is the line in the…

Euro and Sterling Waves or Ripples Above DXY 99

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally.  Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic recovery outside of the US has gained momentum, attracting capital flow to emerging markets.  Geopolitical risks have boosted JPY and gold, while lessened Trump’s desire to pursue trade restrictions against China. US economic activity in Q1 has been sub-trend and recent inflation data has softened, lessening the urgency for Fed policy tightening. Trump has called for a weaker USD and said he likes low-interest rates, reversing his pre-election basis for criticizing Fed Chair Yellen. UK PM May has inspired a break-up in the GBP that may build momentum if she can campaign effectively and strengthen her grip on power.  The first round French election this weekend may help lift political uncertainty and spur a recovery in EUR. On Tuesday, Trump again promised big policy strides on tax, infrastructure, and healthcare, railed against NAFTA, and signed an executive order to review the USA skilled visa program and renew a Federal policy to buy and hire American.  Early in his still short presidency, such actions might have boosted the USD and US equities.  The market is now more focused on results rather than rhetoric.

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally.  Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic recovery outside of the US has gained momentum, attracting capital flow to emerging markets.  Geopolitical risks have boosted JPY and gold, while lessened Trump’s desire to pursue trade restrictions against China. US economic activity in Q1 has been sub-trend and recent inflation data has softened, lessening the urgency for Fed policy tightening. Trump has called for a weaker USD and said he likes low-interest rates, reversing his pre-election basis for criticizing Fed Chair Yellen. UK PM May has inspired a break-up in the GBP that may build momentum if she can campaign effectively and strengthen her grip on power.  The first round French election this weekend may help lift political uncertainty and spur a recovery in EUR. On Tuesday, Trump again promised big policy strides on tax, infrastructure, and healthcare, railed against NAFTA, and signed an executive order to review the USA skilled visa program and renew a Federal policy to buy and hire American.  Early in his still short presidency, such actions might have boosted the USD and US equities.  The market is now more focused on results rather than rhetoric.

May's Bid to Boost Power, Trump's Words Lose Power

<ul><li>UK CPI inflation matched my forecast and the median of others by holding at 2.3% in March. Airfares weighed heavily, especially on the so-called ‘core’ measure, owing to a late Easter. Median measures continued to trend higher.</li><li>RPI inflation was slightly softer than expected, but surprisingly large increases in council tax raise this forecast contribution from April. The compressing effect on the CPI-RPI basis from air and sea fares is unlikely to extend much further.</li><li>A large rebound in inflation is set to occur in April on post-Easter airfares. The peak in CPI inflation still looks likely to be about 3.2%. The declining trend through 2018 should then discourage rate hikes, assuming activity slows as expected.</li></ul>

UK CPI inflation matched my forecast and the median of others by holding at 2.3% in March. Airfares weighed heavily, especially on the so-called ‘core’ measure, owing to a late Easter. Median measures continued to trend higher.RPI inflation was slightly softer than expected, but surprisingly large increases in council tax raise this forecast contribution from April. The compressing effect on the CPI-RPI basis from air and sea fares is unlikely to extend much further.A large rebound in inflation is set to occur in April on post-Easter airfares. The peak in CPI inflation still looks likely to be about 3.2%. The declining trend through 2018 should then discourage rate hikes, assuming activity slows as expected.

UK Inflation: Spring Break in Still Rising Trend

<ul><li>The LFS unemployment rate has fallen 0.2pp to 4.7% since the referendum, despite only a 0.3% rise in employment since then. Had trend labour force growth continued, or had new entrants to the survey not all had a lower average unemployment rate, the headline rate would have risen instead to 5.1%.</li><li>Non-seasonally adjusted jobless claims and regional universal credit data both indicate a weakening of the labour market in recent months. </li><li>As the change (if not the level) in unemployment has been bias, an inflationary change in the amount of spare capacity should not have occurred. As such, it should not be surprising that pay growth and hawkish pressures stay subdued.</li></ul>

The LFS unemployment rate has fallen 0.2pp to 4.7% since the referendum, despite only a 0.3% rise in employment since then. Had trend labour force growth continued, or had new entrants to the survey not all had a lower average unemployment rate, the headline rate would have risen instead to 5.1%.Non-seasonally adjusted jobless claims and regional universal credit data both indicate a weakening of the labour market in recent months. As the change (if not the level) in unemployment has been bias, an inflationary change in the amount of spare capacity should not have occurred. As such, it should not be surprising that pay growth and hawkish pressures stay subdued.

UK Activity: Soft Labour Market Explains Wages

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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Brexit: Withdrawal Treaty Processes

The government’s Brexit timeline appears to be inherited from Brussels, where Brexit is still considered a two-stage process. Article 50 is more...

Phil Rush

Euro and Sterling Waves or Ripples Above DXY 99

Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 19 April 2017Euro and Sterling waves or ripples above DXY 99To view click on this link:...

Thomas Schroeder

May's Bid to Boost Power, Trump's Words Lose Power

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally. Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic...

Greg Gibbs

UK Inflation: Spring Break in Still Rising Trend

UK CPI inflation matched my forecast and the median of others by holding at 2.3% in March. Airfares weighed heavily, especially on the so-called...

Phil Rush

UK Activity: Soft Labour Market Explains Wages

The LFS unemployment rate has fallen 0.2pp to 4.7% since the referendum, despite only a 0.3% rise in employment since then. Had trend labour force...

Phil Rush

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