FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fed Vs. The Data, Dudley Writing Calls on the S&P

Central Bankers Switch Gear; EUR/NZD Reversal

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD was in crucial danger of being slammed last week after weak CPI inflation data, but has been saved by the Fed sticking to its guns.  The USD may be in the process of a technically inspired bounce, but the USA economy lacks oomph, inflation indicators have weakened, including market and surveyed expectations, and political uncertainty remains.  So it’s hard to anticipate a sustained rebound.  The BoE and BoC turned to a tightening bias last week, while the BoJ joined the ECB in reasserting its current ultra-easy settings.  The CAD has bounced sharply, boosted by higher rates, but still faces risks from a renewed slide in oil prices and its housing market. GBP has struggled since the Tories lost their outright parliamentary majority.  The UK no longer has a clear plan or common purpose to conduct Brexit negotiations and is facing a period of stagflation (rising inflation and weaker growth). EUR has been surprisingly soft in light of French election results and tightening credit spreads, but it may be consolidating gains in April/May.  The EUR has stalled since the ECB downgraded its inflation forecasts at it 8 June policy meeting.  USD/JPY and US yields appear to have shifted momentum, at least in the short term, stabilizing and firming in recent sessions. AUD and NZD may have completed their latest swing from oversold levels in May to overbought conditions.  Stronger employment data in Australia helped complete AUD’s latest upswing.  China’s bond markets have recovered in recent days, suggesting financial stress has eased, but the detention of Chinese insurance company, Anbang’s, chairman suggests financial risks are still present; posing a risk for AUD.  We expect little change in the RBNZ policy statement this week and political risk may begin to undermine the NZD as the 23 September election draws nearer.   There is a lot of disparate macro developments but no dominant theme.

The USD was in crucial danger of being slammed last week after weak CPI inflation data, but has been saved by the Fed sticking to its guns.  The USD may be in the process of a technically inspired bounce, but the USA economy lacks oomph, inflation indicators have weakened, including market and surveyed expectations, and political uncertainty remains.  So it’s hard to anticipate a sustained rebound.  The BoE and BoC turned to a tightening bias last week, while the BoJ joined the ECB in reasserting its current ultra-easy settings.  The CAD has bounced sharply, boosted by higher rates, but still faces risks from a renewed slide in oil prices and its housing market. GBP has struggled since the Tories lost their outright parliamentary majority.  The UK no longer has a clear plan or common purpose to conduct Brexit negotiations and is facing a period of stagflation (rising inflation and weaker growth). EUR has been surprisingly soft in light of French election results and tightening credit spreads, but it may be consolidating gains in April/May.  The EUR has stalled since the ECB downgraded its inflation forecasts at it 8 June policy meeting.  USD/JPY and US yields appear to have shifted momentum, at least in the short term, stabilizing and firming in recent sessions. AUD and NZD may have completed their latest swing from oversold levels in May to overbought conditions.  Stronger employment data in Australia helped complete AUD’s latest upswing.  China’s bond markets have recovered in recent days, suggesting financial stress has eased, but the detention of Chinese insurance company, Anbang’s, chairman suggests financial risks are still present; posing a risk for AUD.  We expect little change in the RBNZ policy statement this week and political risk may begin to undermine the NZD as the 23 September election draws nearer.   There is a lot of disparate macro developments but no dominant theme.

USD

Dollar Saved by the Fed